Analysts See 69% Upside for Airtel Africa as Tariffs, Stable FX Boost Outlook

Airtel Africa target price has been raised by analysts at CardinalStone Partners Limited, which implies a 70% upside to the current stock price, on positive effects of new tariff pricing and stable FX.

“In our view, this trend is likely to persist in the remaining part of the fiscal year, and following conversations with management, we raise our Target Price to N3,906.75, up from our previous estimate of N3,635.78.  This implies a potential upside of 69.1% from the current market price of N2,310.50. We maintain our BUY rating on the ticker,” analysts led by Samuel Gbadebo, said in an Aug. 20 note to clients.

Airtel Africa Plc in its Q1’25/26 earnings, recorded a Profit After Tax (PAT) of $156.0 million (vs $31.0 million in Q1’24/25), on the back of the full quarter impact of tariff adjustments in the Nigerian Operations, relatively improving FX dynamics, recovery in observed market trends in the Francophone region, and sustained CAPEX investment that facilitated data monetization, according to the analysts.

In Q1’2025/2026, the Nigerian business of Airtel Africa reported revenue growth of 30% to $333 million as a result of an interplay of price increases and rising data traffic.

Cardinal Stone now expects Airtel Africa’s revenue to rise 16.6% year-on-year to $5.8 billion in Full Year 2025/2026, with EBITDA margin forecast at 48.6%.

Stable FX dynamics for the Naira and the CFA Franc, as well as the operational strategy of reducing Foreign Currency (FCY) debts via local borrowings drove FX losses lower in the period.

Specifically, $22.0 million was reported as net derivative and foreign exchange gain in Q1’25/26 vs $136.0 million FX loss in the same period last year and a loss $179.0 million in FY’24/25.

This trend was a key driver for lower Net finance cost in the period at $173.0 million, compared to $261.0 million in Q1’24/25).

Partnership with SpaceX

During the period, Airtel Africa announced an agreement with SpaceX to bring Starlink’s high-speed internet services to its customers in Africa.

Management revealed that this arrangement allows for four key achievements; speed to market that expands the company’s coverage, improve customer experience based on resilient networks and reduced redundancy, cost efficiency as fibre becomes very expensive for setup in remote or rural areas, and augmentation of connectivity for enterprises, businesses and socioeconomic communities like schools, health centres, etc, in most rural parts of Africa.

Currently, SpaceX has acquired the necessary licenses in 9 out of 14 countries within Airtel Africa’s footprint, and operating licenses for the other five countries are in process.

“Airtel Africa’s partnership with SpaceX represents a strategic lever for both network expansion and new revenue streams,” Gbadebo, and the Cardinal Stone analysts said.

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