Downstream Shake-up: Nigeria Issues New Import Licenses Following Regulator Reshuffle

Nigeria has pivoted its downstream energy strategy, easing restrictions on foreign gasoline imports following a significant leadership change at the Nigerian Midstream & Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).

On May 6, 2026, the regulator issued licenses to six marketing firms to import a total of 600,000 metric tons of gasoline—approximately 25% of the nation’s monthly consumption.

This policy shift comes just days after a presidential directive replaced the agency’s CEO, signaling a move toward greater market competition and supply security.

The issuance of these licenses breaks a period of tightening import quotas, intended to provide a buffer against potential supply shortages and network outages.

By allowing more private players to import directly, the government aims to create a competitive pricing environment, though landing costs remain sensitive to global crude volatility and the US-Iran conflict’s impact on premiums.

The Dangote Counter-Argument: Quality vs. Quantity

The decision to open the market has drawn a sharp response from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which is currently ramping up its own domestic production.

• Substandard Fuel Concerns: Aliko Dangote has raised alarms regarding the potential influx of “substandard” fuel from foreign blenders. He argued that allowing imports of lower-quality gasoline undermines domestic refining investments and poses risks to vehicle engines and environmental health.

• Strategic Conflict: The refinery, which recently adjusted its domestic petrol price to ₦1,350 per litre due to rising feedstock costs, views the liberalization of imports as a threat to the “Buy Nigeria” policy intended to achieve self-sufficiency.

The reshuffle at the NMDPRA follows months of friction between the regulator, independent marketers, and the Dangote Group. The new leadership appears tasked with balancing two competing priorities:

• Ensuring Price Stability: Preventing a monopoly that could lead to price gouging.

• Protecting Domestic Industry: Ensuring that the 650,000 bpd Dangote facility remains the cornerstone of Nigeria’s energy security.