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European gasoline exports in the fourth quarter (Q4) declined markedly year over year, according to ship tracking data from S&P Global Commodities at Sea, with domestic production in Nigeria and a well-supplied US market keeping more volumes within Europe.
Total exports from the Northwest Europe (NWE) and Mediterranean regions to all external destinations fell from 9,800,000 metric tons (mt) in Q4 2024 to 7,500,000 mt in Q4 2025, according to CAS data as of Dec. 30.
The 23.5% year-on-year (YOY) decline in European gasoline exports during Q4 2025 marks a structural “decoupling” of the Atlantic Basin fuel trade.
Historically, the NWE refining hub relied on Nigeria as its largest “off-take” market for surplus gasoline. As the Dangote Refinery stabilizes its output toward its 650,000 bpd nameplate capacity, this multi-billion-dollar trade route is being permanently redrawn.
For decades, Nigeria accounted for roughly 20% (1 in 5 barrels) of all gasoline exported from European refineries. By the end of 2025, that figure has plummeted to just 10% (1 in 10 barrels).
The decline is driven by two primary factors emanating from the Lekki Free Trade Zone:
- Domestic Displacement: Dangote’s ability to meet nearly 60% of Nigerian domestic demand has removed the “arbitrage” opportunity that European traders once exploited.
- The RFCC Variable: While technical outages in the refinery’s Residue Fluidized Catalytic Cracking (RFCC) unit in late 2025 provided temporary relief for European exporters, the overall trend remains sharply downward as the refinery optimizes its yield.
“The loss of the West African outlet is a permanent structural blow to older, less complex refineries in the UK, France, and Germany. They are now competing for shrinking demand in a market that no longer needs them as a primary supplier,” said an Atlantic Basin Energy Analyst.
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