Equity research analysts at Cardinal Stone Partners expect Dangote Cement Plc (NGX: DANGCEM) to maintain strong earnings momentum throughout the second half of 2026, raising full-year net profit (PAT) projections to ₦1.40 trillion (+34.6% YoY) and Earnings Per Share (EPS) to ₦80.73.
The positive medium-term outlook is backed by a combination of accelerating regional cement/clinker exports, a volume rebound across Pan-African operations, and firm domestic unit realizations in Nigeria.
During H1 2026, total group volumes expanded 11.7% YoY to 14.9 million metric tonnes (Mt). The Nigerian operating business posted an 8.3% volume gain to 9.7 Mt, with clinker and cement exports to neighboring West African markets contributing 56.6% of total Nigerian volume growth.
Key Investment & Operational Drivers
Foreign Exchange Turnaround via Export Strategy
Management’s strategic goal of achieving 8.0 Mt to 10.0 Mt in export throughput by 2030 is already reshaping the group’s balance sheet liquidity. Dangote Cement transitioned from a monthly FX deficit of $20M–$22M to a monthly FX surplus of $4M–$5M, establishing a natural foreign currency hedge against its cross-border debt obligations and import bills.
Realized Domestic Price Adjustments
Sector-wide price adjustments implemented in late Q1 2026 fed through Q2 results, pushing average revenue per tonne in Nigeria to ₦196,804 in Q2 2026 (+12.0% QoQ) as the company passed on rising energy and distribution costs. H2 2026 revenue per tonne is modeled at ₦198,547, reflecting stable price realizations through year-end.
Fleet Transition to Cut Operating Overhead
To cushion margins against elevated automotive gas oil (AGO/diesel) costs, Dangote Cement plans to fully phase out its diesel-fueled logistics fleet by FY2027 in favor of Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) trucks, offering substantial medium-term operating cost relief.
London Listing & Valuation Repricing Catalyst
According to S&P Capital IQ data cited by Cardinal Stone, Dangote Cement trades at a forward EV/EBITDA of 6.7x and a forward P/E of 12.3x—representing a discount to its Middle East & Africa (MEA) peer median of 8.0x and 12.9x, respectively.
Analyst consensus indicates that a prospective dual listing on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) could trigger a valuation repricing. The ticker boasts superior fundamental return metrics compared to international peers, including a trailing EBITDA margin of 46.5% (vs. MEA peer average of 34.1%) and a Return on Equity (ROE) of 43.2% (vs. peer average of 12.9%).
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