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Gasoline prices at the Dangote refinery have diverged sharply from the Offshore Lomé market over the past month, as the refinery began selling gasoline at a fixed price in November while the Lomé market moved with swings in international markets.
According to regional market sources and information seen by Platt’s, gasoline from the Dangote refinery on a coastal basis was fixed at a flat rate for most of November.
Attractive inland margins are said to be pulling arbitrage volumes to West Africa.
Energy sources tell MoneyCentral that oil traders in Lomé are probably buying refined Russian crude which is heavily discounted due to numerous western sanctions.
“Dangote can’t buy Russian crude which has seen a big mark down following recent US sanctions,” one source said.
Oil prices have declined over the past month. Both Brent crude and WTI crude benchmarks fell approximately 4.6-4.8% from mid-November to December 10, 2025.
WTI crude traded at $58.23 per barrel on December 10, down slightly from the prior day, while Brent reached $62.04 per barrel, up marginally but still reflecting the monthly drop.
Offshore Lomé West Africa oil trading hub is the floating storage and trading operations off the coast of Lomé, Togo, which has emerged as a critical hub for refined petroleum products in West Africa.
Large refined product cargoes are discharged into floating storage vessels (FSOs) anchored offshore, then broken into smaller parcels (5,000-20,000 tonnes) for distribution to Nigeria, Ghana, and other regional markets.
It currently handles about 70% of West Africa’s fuel surpluses, with Europe, Middle East, US, and India cargoes routed through Lomé for regional redistribution.
Indian refiners are sending their output to Offshore Lomé
Indian refiners are sending their output to offshore Lomé as they are getting the Russian crude at discount.
Offshore Lomé Market Dynamics vs. Dangote’s Fixed/Adjusted Price Strategy
Petrol prices in offshore Lomé are typically priced off global crude prices (like Brent Crude) plus international refining margins (cracks), terminal fees, and sovereign taxes.
When international crude prices and refining margins fluctuate, the prices at the Lomé hub move accordingly.
Dangote’s strategic pricing decisions are however designed for the domestic market versus the market-driven prices influenced by global crude prices and regional demand, as reflected in the offshore Lomé hub.
The Dangote Refinery evacuated 23.52 million litres per day of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) or petrol on average in the month of November, according to data on domestic refineries performance, from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).
This fell short of the planned Dangote Refinery domestic PMS or petrol supply of 35 million litres a day, according to the NMDPRA.
The NMDPRA data showed that Dangote contributed 32.8% of total Nigeria supply in November and can currently meet only 44.46% of Nigerian consumption.
This Dangote price-setting behavior (despite inability to meet majority of Nigerian demand) acts as a fixed-price anchor for the domestic market, leveraging the advantages of domestic refining, economies of scale, and absorbing some logistics costs to set prices for the Nigerian market.
“This is a clear tactic to disrupt the established downstream sector, which relied on fluctuating import parity pricing,” a second energy source told MoneyCentral.
Analysts tell MoneyCentral that this price divergence encapsulates the complex market dynamics currently characterizing Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector, particularly the emergence of the Dangote Refinery as the dominant supplier.
“Aliko is probably doing a lot to manage his inventory cost. But i suspect his refinery has yet to get to a sufficient scale to blend varying cargo types and costs,” the first source said.
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