Dangote Refinery Gantry Price up ₦221 in Four Days as Global Shocks Hit Home

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has increased its Premium Motor Spirit gantry price to N995 per litre, marking a sharp N221 rise within four days, amid volatility in global crude oil prices and shipping costs.

The new price represents an increase from N874 per litre, which itself was introduced earlier this week after the refinery raised its ex-depot price from N774 to N874 per litre.

With the latest revision, the refinery’s petrol price has climbed from N774 to N995 per litre within four days, representing about a N221 or 29 per cent increase over the period.

Checks on petroleumprice.ng, also confirmed that the new gantry price had already been updated on the portal, signalling a shift in domestic downstream pricing benchmarks.

Why the Hike? The “War Premium”

Despite refining the crude on Nigerian soil, the Dangote Refinery remains tethered to global economic variables:

• Brent at $83: With global crude prices jumping 14% this week due to the US/Israel-Iran conflict, the refinery’s raw material cost has spiked. Under the “Crude in Naira” framework, the price is still pegged to international benchmarks.

• Shipping & Insurance: War risk insurance premiums for tankers in the Atlantic and Gulf of Guinea have surged, raising the landed cost of even domestic crude deliveries.

Market Impact: Retail Pump Prices Expected to Cross ₦1,000

The gantry price (ex-depot) of ₦995 is the price paid by marketers. Once logistics, branding, and dealer margins are added:

• Lagos & Environs: Retail pump prices are expected to stabilize between ₦1,050 and ₦1,100.

• Northern Region/Far Interior: Due to trucking costs from the Lekki Free Zone, residents in the North could see pump prices hit ₦1,200 to ₦1,250 per litre by Monday.

• IPMAN Reaction: Independent marketers have indicated they will adjust their prices immediately to reflect the new replacement cost, signaling a fresh wave of inflationary pressure on transport and logistics.

The price hike followed a brief halt in petrol loading operations at the refinery, a development that had earlier sparked speculation among marketers that another price increase might be imminent.

Sources confirmed that truck-out operations for petrol were suspended at about 2:00 a.m. on Friday, leaving depot owners and bulk marketers uncertain about the refinery’s next pricing direction.

Market participants noted that similar pauses in petrol loading at the facility have historically preceded price adjustments.

Officials at the refinery have repeatedly defended its pricing decisions, insisting that petrol prices must reflect prevailing global crude oil prices, logistics costs and operational realities.

In a statement issued on Thursday, the refinery emphasised that it does not arbitrarily determine prices but adjusts them based on international market movements and the cost of crude oil used for refining.

The refinery said its pricing strategy reflects Nigeria’s transition to a fully deregulated downstream petroleum market, where petrol prices are now largely influenced by global crude oil prices, foreign exchange rates and supply dynamics.

It also promised to ensure that Nigeria is insulated from global supply shocks by prioritising supply to the domestic market amid the ongoing US-Iran war.