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Polls show Ghana ex-President John Mahama is the frontrunner to win Saturdays Presidential vote as citizens struggle with high living costs and elevated interest rates.
Ghana’s government has overseen a restructuring of most public debt, secured a $3 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout and rebooted the West African nation’s economy. That probably won’t be enough to spare the ruling party and its presidential candidate from defeat in Saturday’s election.
The cedi has depreciated 60% against the dollar since the start of 2022, living costs and interest rates have soared and businesses are struggling under the weight of new taxes that were agreed to as part of the IMF deal.
With President Nana Akufo-Addo stepping down after serving two terms, his deputy Mahamudu Bawumia was named as the ruling New Patriotic Party’s flagbearer and will likely inherit blame for the economic hardship. His main rival is John Mahama, a former president who heads the National Democratic Congress.
Power has rotated like clockwork between the two parties every eight years for more than three decades. The NPP garnered 51% support in 2020, down from 54% four years earlier, after falling short on a pledge to tackle graft and undertaking a banking sector cleanup that cost the state about $1.9 billion and led to the closure of hundreds of financial institutions and thousands of job losses.
A poll of 2,623 people conducted last month by Accra-based Global InfoAnalytics Ltd. showed 52% backed Mahama and 41% Bawumia. In September, New York-based Eurasia Group said there was a 65% chance of a Mahama victory, up from 60% three months earlier.
There is a strong anti-incumbent sentiment that “positions the former president as the frontrunner to secure the presidency,” Eurasia said in a note to clients. Mahama would also benefit from apathy in ruling party strongholds where voters are struggling economically, said Amaka Anku, who heads the political risk consultancy’s Africa practice.
While 10 other candidates including former Trade Minister Alan Kyerematen and real estate developer Nana Kwame Bediako are also vying for the top job, none has a realistic chance of winning.
“At every election, people say they wish there was a viable third force, but no one has invested in building one,” said E. Gyimah-Boadi, the co-founder of research organization Afrobarometer.
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