MTN Nigeria Communications Plc (MTNN) has successfully executed a historic financial turnaround in Full Year (FY) 2025, reversing its negative equity and declaring a ₦15.00 per share final dividend (totaling ₦20.00 for the year).
According to a March 10, 2026, research note by CardinalStone Partners, the telco is now entering a “super-cycle” of earnings growth, with profit after tax (PAT) projected to hit ₦1.7 trillion in FY’26.
The “sanguine” outlook is underpinned by an unprecedented surge in Nigerian data consumption, which reached 1.39 million terabytes in 2025, proving that demand for connectivity remains “gravity-defying” despite last year’s price hikes.
Valuation: A ₦933 Target Price
With a projected Earnings Per Share (EPS) of ₦80.84 for FY’26, CardinalStone has issued a BUY recommendation with a new 12-month Target Price of ₦933.33.
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Dividend Yield: Investors can expect a ₦60.78 dividend in 2026, representing a 7.7% yield at current prices. Over the next five years, the average payout is projected to hit ₦132.14, implying a staggering 16.7% yield for long-term holders.
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The “Upside” Surprise: The 75.2% payout ratio used in this forecast is conservative compared to MTN’s historical 79.1% average, suggesting potential for even higher cash distributions.
The Data Revolution: 76% of Revenue by 2030
MTN’s revenue mix is undergoing a permanent structural shift. While voice revenue remains resilient, data is now the primary engine of value.
| Metric | FY 2025 (Actual) | FY 2026 (Forecast) | 2030 Projection |
| Data Usage per Sub | 13.1 GB / month | 16.8 GB / month | — |
| Data Subscribers | 53.2 Million | ~58.0 Million | — |
| Data Revenue Mix | 53.4% of Total | ~57.0% of Total | 76.3% of Total |
| 4G Population Coverage | 82.5% | 84.6% | >95% |
Source: CardinalStone Partners Research
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Usage Surge: Average data usage grew 20% in 2025. CardinalStone expects a further 25% jump in 2026, driven by smart home penetration and a “mobile-first” youth population.
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Smartphone Penetration: Despite macro headwinds, smartphone adoption in Nigeria climbed from 45.9% in 2020 to 66.1% in 2025, creating a massive addressable market for 4G and 5G services.
Margin Growth: Tower Leases and Naira Resilience
CardinalStone has revised its FY’26 EBITDA margin forecast to 55.3%, citing a “better cost profile” and favorable macro shifts.
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Tower Lease Wins: MTN successfully renegotiated tower agreements, placing caps on both Naira and Dollar expenses. These costs are now indexed to “discounted inflation rates,” protecting the bottom line from runaway price increases.
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Naira Appreciation: With the 2026 year-to-date exchange rate averaging ₦1,387/$1 (a 9.6% appreciation from 2025’s mean), pressure on foreign-currency-denominated OPEX is easing significantly.
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FX Buffers: Nigeria’s gross external reserves of ~$50 billion provide the necessary stability to keep currency-related costs “tamer” throughout the year.
De-Risked Balance Sheet: The Deleveraging Story
Management has executed a disciplined strategy to clean up the balance sheet, significantly reducing the company’s interest burden.
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Debt Reduction: Total borrowings plummeted from ₦1.2 trillion in FY’23 to just ₦527.7 billion in FY’25.
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Maturity Profile: Short-term debt—which once made up 58.6% of the pile—has been slashed to just 20.5%, virtually eliminating near-term refinancing risks.
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Net Finance Costs: CardinalStone expects finance costs to decline by 16% to ₦398.1 billion in 2026, as the “de-risked” capital structure yields lower interest obligations.
“Adjustments to our model resulted in a new 12-month TP of N933.33, reflecting an 18.1% potential upside from its current reference price and a BUY recommendation. Our TP implies a conservative exit P/E of 11.6x compared to MTNN’s last 5-year median P/E of 14.1x,” the CardinalStone analysts led by Philip Anegbe said.
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