MTN Nigeria Communication Plc’s (MTNN) share target price has been raised to N699.42 per share by Cardinal Stone Partners, following the release of its 9Months 2025 earnings.
This suggests a 42% upside from current levels of arount N472 per share.
“In light of the strong performance and a more favourable macro backdrop, we revised our valuation assumptions, lowering the risk-free rate to 16.4% (from 18.0%) in line with moderating FGN bond yields, and adjusting the equity risk premium to 13.8% (from 14.3%). These revisions support a higher 12-month target price of N669.42 and an upgrade in our recommendation to BUY (previously HOLD),” Cardinal Stone Partners analysts led by Philip Anegbe said.
The upwards price revision underscores MTNN’s firm grip on the data market and its ability to sustain growth despite challenging conditions, according to Cardinal Stone.
MTN Nigeria recorded a 20.8% year-on-year (YoY) surge in average data usage in 9M, 2025 despite the 40% increase in data prices.
Voice revenue also posted modest growth, defying the global trend of cannibalisation by data services.
The demand for data in Nigeria remains highly inelastic, even amid 2025’s strong price increases.
This enduring demand is propelled by an entrenched digital lifestyle among a young, mobile-first population and the proliferation of platforms like TikTok, YouTube, and Instagram.
Further, soaring adoption of remote-work tools, fintech apps, and ecommerce platforms has made data indispensable, diminishing sensitivity to price hikes.
“We expect this trajectory to endure through the year and now forecast 75.0% YoY data revenue growth (vs. 68.2% prior and 73.2% in 9M ’25). Our estimates indicate FY’25 data revenue could climb to N2.78 trillion, capturing 53.9% of group revenue (versus a five-year average of 36.9% and 47.3% at the year’s outset), cementing its status as the largest contributor,” Anegbe said.
Cardinal Stone Partners expect MTN Nigeria group revenue to jump 53.5% to N5.16 trillion by year end 2025.
Cost efficiency to support EBITDA growth
MTNN’s EBITDA margin reached 51.4% vs. 36.3% in 9M ’24, fueled by cost savings from renegotiated tower leases and ongoing operational streamlining.
Cardinal Stone expects this momentum to persist into year-end and it forecasts an EBITDA margin of 52.9% for Full Year 2026.
“Over the next five years, we project margins to average 54.6%, anchored by continuous efficiency gains, restrained cost inflation, and stronger operating leverage from data-driven growth,” Anegbe said.
Restored balance sheet sets stage for strong dividend payouts
The N5.00 interim dividend announced for Q3 ’25 signals the conclusion of MTNN’s balance sheet restoration after five successive quarters of positive earnings, as the company logged positive equity for the first time in seven quarters.
In Full Year 2025, Cardinal Stone expects MTNN to declare a final dividend of N10.20, with total dividend printing at N15.20, representing 30.7% of FY ’25 Earnings Per Share (EPS).
In FY 2026, they forecast a total dividend of N52.38 per share, which translates to a dividend yield of 11.1% at the current market price, under a conservative 71.7% payout ratio.
This is significantly below the MTNN’s 2019–2022 average payout of 88.0%, leaving potential upside for whenever management resumes its pre-repair distribution approach.
“Over the next five years (excluding 2025), we project an average dividend per share of N82.85, implying an average dividend yield of 17.6%, which is a notable premium to the NGX-ASI’s current yield of 3.2%,” Anegbe said.
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