In a bold move at the 2026 International Energy Week in London, NNPC Ltd GCEO Bayo Ojulari confirmed that Nigeria has formally entered talks with OPEC to raise its crude oil production quota.
The request is backed by a steady recovery in output, which hit 1.46 million barrels per day (bpd) in January 2026—nearing the current 1.5 million bpd cap—and a massive overhaul of the country’s refining and gas infrastructure.
Ojulari’s pitch is simple: Nigeria’s internal and regional demand is growing, and with the Dangote Refinery and revitalized state plants coming online, the nation needs more “room to breathe” within the OPEC+ framework to sustain its economic reforms.
Production Snapshot: Closing the Gap
After months of struggling with oil theft and underinvestment, Nigeria is finally seeing a consistent upward trend in output:
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Current Status: Output reached 1.459 million bpd in January 2026, marking the highest level in nearly two years.
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The “Looming” Quota: Nigeria is now just 41,000 bpd away from hitting its 1.5 million bpd OPEC ceiling. Without a hike, the country would be forced to “shut-in” production even as new investments from the 2025 Licensing Round start to yield fruit.
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Target: The government has a budget benchmark of 1.8 million bpd for 2026, signaling a need for a significant upward adjustment from OPEC.
Refining and Midstream Strategy
The NNPC is pivoting from being a mere exporter of crude to a regional energy hub:
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The “Three Small Refineries” Project: Ojulari revealed plans for three new modular/small-scale refineries to complement the major plants in Port Harcourt and Warri. These are designed to quickly address local fuel “blind spots” in the north and middle belt.
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Nigeria-Morocco Pipeline: NNPC is eyeing a Final Investment Decision (FID) on the 7,000 km gas pipeline by mid-2026. The project, valued at $25 billion, is seen as a “highway for African prosperity.”
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Hybrid Refineries: The state-owned plants are being redesigned into hybrid facilities to produce Euro-V standard fuels, ensuring they can compete on quality with private refineries like Dangote
The “Bayo Ojulari” Reform Agenda
Since his appointment, Ojulari has focused on three pillars to modernize the NNPC:
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Commercial Independence: Operating strictly under the Companies and Allied Matters Act (CAMA) to shed its “government agency” image.
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Equity Partnerships: Moving away from simple maintenance contracts toward giving private technical partners like Sinopec skin in the game.
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Decarbonization: Positioning natural gas as Nigeria’s primary “transition fuel” to power industrialization while meeting global climate goals.
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