Nigeria’s inflation trajectory showed a complex divergence in February 2026. While the Headline Inflation rate recorded its second consecutive monthly decline—falling marginally to 15.06%—a sharp spike in Food Inflation has raised concerns about the cost of living for the average household.
The data suggests that the Central Bank’s “dovish” pivot in February was well-timed for the core economy, but structural issues in the agricultural supply chain and seasonal pressures remain a significant hurdle.
Inflation Breakdown: February 2026
The headline figure benefited from a significant cooling in core prices, which offset the mounting pressure in the food basket.
| Component | Jan 2026 | Feb 2026 | Change (Bps) |
| Headline Inflation | 15.10% | 15.06% | -4 bps |
| Food Inflation | 8.89% | 12.12% | +323 bps |
| Core Inflation | 17.72% | 15.88% | -184 bps |
Source: NBS
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Core Inflation Relief: The sharp drop to 15.88% reflects the impact of a more stable Naira and the reduction in corporate interest expenses following the recent 50 bps cut in the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR).
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The Food Shock: The jump to 12.12% is attributed to seasonal shortages and the impact of global supply chain disruptions on fertilizer and transport costs. This 323-basis-point surge is the largest monthly spike in the food sub-index in over a year.
Why the “Core” is Cooling
The deceleration in non-agricultural prices is a direct result of the “FX Neutralization” and cost-optimization strategies adopted by major industrial players.
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Energy Transition: The massive deployment of CNG trucks by firms like Dangote Cement and Lafarge has stabilized haulage costs for industrial goods, preventing recent fuel price volatility from fully leaking into core inflation.
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Monetary Impact: The CBN’s decision to cut the MPR to 26.5% in February signaled to the market that the peak of the interest-rate-driven inflation era has likely passed.
Market Outlook: Policy Implications
The 15.06% headline print keeps the Central Bank in a comfortable position to maintain its current stance, though the food spike may trigger targeted interventions.
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External Reserves Support: With reserves at a 13-year high of $50.45 billion, the CBN has the firepower to intervene in the FX market to prevent “imported food inflation” from worsening.
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Equity Market Reaction: The NGX is expected to view the cooling core inflation positively, as it reinforces the case for lower bond yields and higher corporate earnings in the coming quarters.
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