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Thursday, June 8, 2023

The Extreme Risk to Human Lives from an Early Reopening

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According to British Intelligence, in the most extreme circumstance during this coronavirus outbreak, up to 80 percent of the population could be infected by the virus without a nationwide lockdown. Nigeria’s current population today is about 205.4million people, putting up to 164.3 million people at risk of becoming infected by the virus at the peak of the outbreak. Current number of infected people in the country is still about 5,162 people with only 167 deaths, representing a death rate of 3.2 percent. Many health experts believe that the coronavirus cases reported in Nigeria is significantly below reality considering low number of coronavirus testing in the country. According to NCDC, only 30,657 tests has been carried out in Nigeria with 5,162 people testing positive which represents a positive rate of about 17 percent (approximately 2 in 10 coronavirus exposed citizens will test positive to the disease in Nigeria). With all this information, we can most likely forecast that at the extreme peak of the virus, about 164.3million will become infected and up to 5.3million people could die based on the current 3.2 percent death rate.

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