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Wednesday, March 22, 2023

Trump vs Biden: How Little Known Mathematical Proof Can Detect any Electoral Fraud

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The American mainstream media yesterday launched a coordinated effort to proclaim Joe Biden as President-Elect as projections have been made that the former Vice-President to Barack Obama has won the State of Pennsylvania, while leading in other key swing states like Arizona, Georgia and Nevada.

President Trump and his campaign team meanwhile have reminded Americans that “legal votes decide who is president, not the news media,” adding that “this election is far from over.”

Trump released a Statement accusing Biden of being a beneficiary of fraudulent elections that in part read:

“Beginning Monday, our campaign will start prosecuting our case in court to ensure election laws are fully upheld and the rightful winner is seated. The American People are entitled to an honest election: that means counting all legal ballots, and not counting any illegal ballots. This is the only way to ensure the public has full confidence in our election. It remains shocking that the Biden campaign refuses to agree with this basic principle and wants ballots counted even if they are fraudulent, manufactured, or cast by ineligible or deceased voters. Only a party engaged in wrongdoing would unlawfully keep observers out of the count room – and then fight in court to block their access.

“So what is Biden hiding? I will not rest until the American People have the honest vote count they deserve and that Democracy demands.”

MoneyCentral believes that while it is easy to attack the outcome of the American Presidential election with accusations of fraud, the difficult work for Trump and the Republican Party (RNC), will be in proving such allegations.

This is where a little Known Mathematical Proof/ law can help restore the integrity of American electoral system by helping to proof a case of fraud or alternatively confirming that Biden was duly elected.

The Proof

A growing number of statisticians, accountants and mathematicians are convinced that the astonishing mathematical theorem known as Benford’s Law is a powerful and relatively simple tool for pointing suspicion at frauds, embezzlers, tax evaders, sloppy accountants and even computer bugs.

Benford’s Law is named for the late Dr. Frank Benford, a physicist at the General Electric Company. In 1938 he noticed that pages of logarithms corresponding to numbers starting with the numeral 1 were much dirtier and more worn than other pages.

In other words it seemed that physicists and engineers had some special preference for logarithms starting with 1.

He therefore embarked on a mathematical analysis of 20,229 sets of numbers, including such wildly disparate categories as the areas of rivers, baseball statistics, numbers in magazine articles and the street addresses of the first 342 people listed in the book “American Men of Science.”

All these seemingly unrelated sets of numbers followed the same first-digit probability pattern as the worn pages of logarithm tables suggested. In all cases, the number 1 turned up as the first digit about 30 percent of the time, more often than any other.

The income tax agencies of several nations like the United States Internal Revenue Service (I.R.S) and several states, including California, are using detection software based on Benford’s Law, as are a score of large companies and accounting businesses because most people who engage in fraud don’t know the real odds, so they can’t fake data convincingly.

Manual Recounts and Audits

A number of American States have laws on the books that trigger an automatic manual recount of votes when the margin separating the 2 leading contestants are blow a certain threshold.

As a result, recounts are expected in the state of Georgia, Arizona and Pennsylvania. In addition, the Trump campaign has requested a recount in the state of Wisconsin and may also do so for Michigan.

The margin separating Biden and Trump in what is one of the nation’s most contested swing states (Wisconsin) is roughly 20,000 votes, or less than 1%.

So how would Bedford’s law help in auditing and properly detecting fraud in the recently concluded American Presidential elections?

A chartered Accountant with a big firm in Lagos tells MoneyCentral that:

“You would develop software based on the law and run it through all numbers and figures emanating from the disputed ballots in swing counties, cities and states.

If the software flags any document, then u know that there is probably fraud being perpetrated by those who submitted the bogus figures. Such dishonest election officials can then be easily detected and prosecuted.”

One such effort is already underway.

Matt Braynard. According to his Twitter bio, is the Executive Director of Look Ahead America, a nonprofit focused on rooting out alleged fraudulent votes.

Braynard has launched an effort to try and uncover voter fraud in the November 03 American presidential elections with a special focus on the swing states listed above.

It is hoped Bedford’s law is incorporated into the firm’s analysis.

Back Home

The Nigerian Government is trying to calm the public and win back trust after the street protests, and perhaps getting to the bottom of NNPC fuel subsidy scams, inflated contracts, and corruption at State owned Enterprises would make Citizens have less to complain about.

The NNPC itself has been audited severally without any meaningful results or a diminished ability of auditors to detect the systematic rot in the corporation, so what gives?

Using the proof known as Benford’s law could however help Nigeria win more corruption cases.

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