UBA, GTCO Set to Secure ‘Dividend King’ Crown for 2026 as Investors Pivot From Recapitalisation

As the Nigerian banking sector concludes its 2025 “recapitalization year,” investors are pivoting from capital appreciation to dividend yield as the primary metric for the March 2026 payout season.

The massive ₦781bn impairment at Zenith Bank and the Pan-African earnings explosion at UBA have reshaped the yield curve for the “Big Five.”

Based on current analyst projections and 2025 earnings trajectories, GTCO and UBA are emerging as the frontrunners for the highest dividend yields, albeit for very different reasons.

GTCO remains the most efficient in terms of cost-to-income. While it is considered the “safest” dividend. Investors are paying a premium for its low NPL (Non-Performing Loan) ratio, which keeps the stock price higher and the yield at around 9.05%.

UBA is also a yield favorite for 2026. Because its earnings are increasingly denominated in foreign currencies from its African subsidiaries, its Profit After Tax (PAT) has outpaced its stock price growth.

Even after an 23.5% YTD rally, its low “base price” allows for a yield near 7.7%, one of the highest in the FUGAZ group.

Historically, Zenith Bank is the dividend king. However, the ₦781 billion impairment booked in 9Months 2025 is expected to force the board to adopt a more conservative payout ratio.

While Zenith will likely pay a dividend to maintain its “Dividend Aristocrat” status, the yield may be lower than usual as they prioritize rebuilding their capital buffers.

First HoldCo currently has a low dividend yield of 1.13%, while Access Holdings’ recent need for a N40 billion capital raise to plug capital shortfalls in its financial Holding Company, has thrown some uncertainty into its dividend payment for the 2025 Full Year.

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