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Thursday, March 30, 2023

Chapel Hill Denham Forecasts 2.85 percent GDP Growth in 2021

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Chapel Hill Denham offered a bullish outlook on the Nigerian economy, forecasting GDP 2.85 percent in 2021, an upward review from 1.70 percent previous outlook.

Part of Chapel Hill optimism is based or built on the maintenance of fiscal stimulus introduced by the government, retention of the monetary policy rate at 11.50 percent in the second and third quarter of 2021, and improved consumption level as the economy stays open, relatively low incidence of the Delta variant of the Covid-19 and gradual restoration of business activities to pre-pandemic level.

The onset of the coronavirus pandemic disrupted the economy as a lockdown policy by the government paralyzed business activities and the country slipped into its second recession in 2 years in the second quarter of 2020.

With the introduction of vaccines and relaxation of social distancing rules crude oil price rebounded while the economy was invigorated.

The Nigerian economy grew stronger in real terms, year-on-year, in Q2-2021 by 5.01 percent year on year (yoy), according to a recent data by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast GDP to grow in 2021 by 3.15 percent; Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), 3.0 percent, Federal Government, 1.1 percent.

Analysts at Chapel Hill said the non-oil sector will likely grow by 3.08 percent, supported by three major sectors: information and communication technology, trade and cement.

They added that the oil sector will likely grow by 0.49 percent year on year in 2021.

The manufacturing subsector continued to show the fastest recovery in the economy’s private sector, reporting the steepest uptick in the period.

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