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IMF Cuts Global Growth Forecast for Next Year, Warns ‘Worst is Yet to Come’

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The International Monetary Fund predicts global growth will slow to 2.7% next year, 0.2 percentage points lower than its July forecast, and anticipates 2023 will feel like a recession for millions around the world.

Aside from the global financial crisis and the peak of the Covid-19 pandemic, this is “the weakest growth profile since 2001,” the IMF said in its World Economic Outlook published Tuesday. Its GDP estimate for this year remained steady at 3.2%, which was down from the 6% seen in 2021.

“The worst is yet to come, and for many people 2023 will feel like a recession,” the report said, echoing warnings from the United Nations, the World Bank and many global CEOs.

More than a third of the global economy will see two consecutive quarters of negative growth, while the three largest economies — the United States, the European Union and China — will continue to slow, the report said.

In its report, the IMF laid out three major events currently hindering growth: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the cost-of-living crisis and China’s economic slowdown. Together, they create a “volatile” period economically, geopolitically and ecologically.

The IMF anticipates global inflation will peak in late 2022, increasing from 4.7% in 2021 to 8.8%, and that it will “remain elevated for longer than previously expected.”

Global inflation will likely decrease to 6.5% in 2023 and to 4.1% by 2024, according to the IMF forecast.

The IMF also highlighted that the risk of monetary, fiscal, or financial policy “miscalibration” had “risen sharply,” while the world economy “remains historically fragile” and financial markets are “showing signs of stress.”

The energy crisis is also weighing heavily on the world’s economies, particularly in Europe, and it “is not a transitory shock,” according to the report.

“The geopolitical re-alignment of energy supplies in the wake of Russia’s war against Ukraine is broad and permanent,” the report added. “Winter 2022 will be challenging for Europe, but winter 2023 will likely be worse,” the IMF said.

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