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Nigeria sovereign dollar bonds were among the biggest decliners on Thursday, as long-term US plans to boost crude from Venezuela dim the appeal of debt from oil exporters on the continent.
“One thing to note is that Nigeria’s relative-value spreads were very tight at the end of 2025,” Samir Gadio, Africa economist at Standard Chartered Plc, said. The gains were possibly “overdone,” he added.
While a complete overhaul of Venezuela’s oil industry would likely take years, crude prices are already down almost 20% in the past year and the shock move by the US has increased uncertainty about where prices go from here.
For African oil exporters like Nigeria — which depend on oil for 90% of its export earnings — an eventual boost to output from Venezuela could translate into significant budget pain.
The losses for African bonds are feeding into a broader correction across emerging markets as the geopolitical uncertainty drives investors away from riskier wagers.
The 20 worst-performing emerging market sovereign dollar bonds on Thursday were all from Africa, a Bloomberg index showed.
That included Nigeria, Angola, Egypt and Kenya, with Nigeria’s dollar notes due 2051 falling as much as 2.5 cents on the dollar, the biggest drop among peers.
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