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Monday, March 27, 2023

Republicans in Strong Position to Retake House as Counting Continues

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Republicans remained poised to win control of the House of Representatives with more than a dozen races still uncalled Monday, as Congress returned to work and new members set to take office next year began orientation.

Democrats are projected to hold their Senate majority after a weekend win in Nevada, giving them the 50 seats needed to control the chamber.

A final Senate race, in Georgia, is set for a runoff on Dec. 6 because neither candidate got a majority.

There are currently 11 races that have not been called, and 10 of those seats are considered “battlegrounds.” Of those remaining in battleground districts, five were rated as “toss ups,” two were in the “likely Democrat” category, one was “leaning Democrat” and two were “leaning Republican.”

Democratic strategists who work on House races this cycle say it would take a “miracle,” but Democrats do have a possible  path to retaining the majority.

They would then have to win at least 8 of the remaining 11 seats.

In nine of California’s uncalled and competitive races (California’s 3rd, 9th, 13th, 22nd, 27th, 41st, 45th, 47th and 49th), three were “leaning Republican.”

For Republicans, California could help them get to the edge of clinching the majority — if their candidates hold their leads.

Mitchell said for any chance for Democrats to hold the House, they’d have to win in the 22nd, 27th and 41st, all districts where the Republican incumbent is in the lead.

“If Democrats won all three of those races in California, then think the odds go up that the Democrats can hold the House. But if Democrats lose one of those three, the odds go way down, they lose two of those three, the door slams shut,” Mitchell said.

Sarah Chamberlain, president of the Republican Main Street Partnership group which works with more moderate House Republicans, said she’s confident Republicans David Valadao and Ken Calvert will hold their seats.

Republicans also lead in one other tight race: Colorado’s 3rd District, where GOP Rep. Lauren Boebert is in the lead by around 1,100 votes with 99% of results in.

Democratic incumbents were projected to win three Nevada seats. Maine’s 2nd District and Alaska’s At-Large District, two seats with ranked choice voting, were leaning Democrat.

“From the math that we’ve done — I think it’s a foregone conclusion [that Republicans take the House],” said Chamberlain. “But it’s gonna be very close. It’s gonna be just a couple of seats. And it shouldn’t be I mean, this should have been a landslide, frankly.”

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