Claudia Sheinbaum became Mexico’s first female leader in a landslide victory, capitalizing on outgoing President Andres Manuel Lopez (AMLO) Obrador’s popularity while also inheriting rampant criminal violence and a large fiscal deficit left by his government.
The former mayor of the nation’s capital and candidate for the ruling Morena party won Sunday’s election by a margin of at least 30 percentage points, according to the nation’s electoral authority. It was a crushing blow for the main opposition led by Xochitl Galvez and further consolidates the party AMLO founded as Mexico’s dominant force.
Sheinbaum, 61, and her allies also won two-thirds of the seats in the lower house and expect to replicate that success in the senate. Such a supermajority would gift her the power to approve constitutional changes that have eluded AMLO. The peso reversed earlier gains versus the dollar as investors worried about her iron grip on the legislative agenda.
“I want to thank the recognition that the people of Mexico have given to our project for the nation,” Sheinbaum said in a speech after midnight, concluding with a “Viva Mexico!”
Sheinbaum’s victory represents a vote of thanks to AMLO as much as a vote of enthusiasm for the candidate herself, said Andrew Paxman, a history professor at the Center for Research and Teaching in Economics. “Whether that is enough for her to remain an effective leader remains to be seen, because of this question mark that is her future relationship with congress.”
While winning by a large margin will help Sheinbaum push her agenda through congress, a crucial question persists: Will her government be merely an extension of AMLO’s or will she seek meaningful changes to address Mexico’s most pressing issues?
Under AMLO, the national currency became the best performer in emerging markets. The “super peso” was initially a welcome development because it stimulated domestic consumption of imports. But it has become a burden for the economy, raising production costs of exporters and weakening the purchasing power of remittances that Mexicans receive from relatives abroad.
Many of Sheinbaum’s policies — from the relationship with China to migration — will also depend on who the next US president will be. Donald Trump’s possible return to the White House may be a complicating factor as it’s not clear whether both leaders would get along.
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