In a setback for the Democratic Party’s ambition to retain control of the US Senate after 2024, Senator Joe Manchin will not seek re-election next year, the centrist West Virginia Democrat announced on Thursday.
At the same time, he raised the possibility of causing more mischief for the Democrats, as he also teased a potential independent bid for the White House.
Manchin’s move will almost certainly deliver his senate seat to the Republicans. By one measure, West Virginia is the reddest state of all: In 2020, Trump won the Mountain State by a 38.9% margin, his biggest trouncing of Biden anywhere.
Even before Manchin’s announcement, the Washington Post declared the “2024 Senate map is a GOP dream.”
Republicans need just a two-state pickup to take over the Senate — unless America elects a Republican vice-president/Senate tie-breaker. In that latter scenario, taking West Virginia could be all they need, provided they can hold existing Republican seats. Montana Democrat Jon Tester is also in jeopardy.
Joe Manchin news is pretty bad; he will be replaced by someone with much worse politics who will caucus with the Republicans, and the party can redirect the money they were going to spend attacking him going after Dem seats in OH/AZ/PA/WI/MI (need 1). Plus he could run for pres.
— Matthew Gertz (@MattGertz) November 9, 2023
Manchin first entered the Senate in 2010 in a special election that determined who would represent West Virginia for the remaining two years of the term of Senator Robert Byrd, who died in June of that year.
He was twice re-elected to office. However, Manchin was in for a tough 2024 re-election fight against popular Republican West Virginia Governor Jim Justice, who was leading in polls.
The 76-year-old isn’t riding off into the sunset. Indeed, his words on Thursday felt more like a campaign speech than a retirement announcement:
“I’ve made one of the toughest decisions of my life and decided that I will not be running for re-election to the United States Senate, but what I will be doing is traveling the country and speaking out to see if there is an interest in creating a movement to mobilize the middle and bring Americans together.”



