Nigeria’s inflation trajectory hit a fresh bump in March 2026, with the Headline Inflation rate climbing to 15.38%, a 32-basis-point increase from February’s 15.06%.
While the year-on-year comparison shows a dramatic “base effect” improvement—dropping from 27.35% in March 2025—the month-on-month acceleration in core prices suggests that underlying inflationary momentum remains stubborn.
The data, released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), highlights a divergence: while food inflation moderated slightly in its monthly pace, Core Inflation (excluding energy and produce) nearly quintupled its monthly growth rate, signaling broad-based price hikes in services and manufactured goods.
The Inflation Dashboard: March 2026
The surge in core prices indicates that the “orthodoxy” of Governor Olayemi Cardoso’s 2025 interest rate hikes is still battling secondary price effects across the non-agricultural economy.
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Food Staples Crisis: Prices for tubers (Yam, Cassava, Irish Potatoes) and legumes (Groundnuts) remains elevated. Although the monthly food pace slowed to 4.17% (from 4.69%), the sustained high cost of these “table essentials” continues to strain household wallets.
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Core Momentum: The jump in monthly core inflation from 0.89% to 4.03% suggests that logistics costs and currency-related pricing are finally filtering into non-volatile sectors like health, transport, and education.
Regional Heat Map: The Inflation Divide
Inflation remains a tale of two Nigerias, with the North-West and North-East experiencing far higher price volatility than the South-West and North-Central regions.
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Lagos Resilience: On a month-on-month basis, Lagos (1.54%) and Akwa Ibom (1.80%) recorded the mildest increases, benefiting from improved port logistics and local supply chains.
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The Food Hotspot: Bayelsa remains the most expensive state for food (33.35% YoY), likely due to its reliance on inter-state transport and the high cost of riverine logistics.
Outlook: The May Fuel Risk
Economists are closely watching the 2026 Fiscal Policy Measures, which present a tug-of-war between tax relief and energy costs.
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The Cooling Impulse: Downward revisions on import duties for Rice, Sugar, and Salt, along with lower tariffs on Crude Palm Oil, are expected to provide a “disinflationary buffer” in late Q2.
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The Heating Impulse: These gains are threatened by $100 oil prices (driven by the Iran war). Persistently high diesel and fuel costs are expected to feed into the CPI throughout May, as transportation companies adjust their fares to match global crude reality.
“Near term inflation is likely to remain sticky as fiscal adjustments, elevated energy costs, structural food supply constraints, and ongoing cost pass through effects continue to shape price formation,” analysts at Futureview Research said.
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