The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index increased to 15.93% in May 2026, up from 15.69% in April 2026, reflecting a 0.24% increase on a month-on-month basis, while year-on-year headline inflation declined significantly by 10.13% from 26.06% in May 2025.
Food inflation rose to 16.96% on a year-on-year basis, due to higher prices of fresh onions, maize grains, melon, water yam, cassava flour, crayfish, fresh pepper, fresh tomatoes, wheat grain, cassava tuber, yam tuber, sweet potatoes, fresh ginger, plantain, and cowpea.
However, the monthly drop to 2.98% from 3.63% in April 2026 suggested that the pace of food price increases slowed significantly even as annual food inflation continued to rise.
Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy, increased to 16.82% on a year-on-year basis from 15.86% recorded in April 2026. Also, it spiked to 1.94% from 1.03% in April 2026, reflecting persistent increases in non-food prices as inflationary pressures remain broad based across the economy.
The highest all items inflation rates were recorded in Yobe (24.94%), Anambra (23.29%), and Sokoto (22.60%), while Niger (3.07%), Plateau (7.10%), and Edo (7.73%) recorded the lowest increases in annual CPI levels.
Looking ahead: Inflation risks and outlook
| Factor | Impact on Inflation |
|---|---|
| US-Iran framework agreement | Potential relief to energy/transport costs if sustained |
| Lower crude oil prices | May moderate imported inflation, ease logistics costs |
| Sticky inflation (US, EU) | Could keep global commodity prices elevated |
| Persistent insecurity (agricultural regions) | Likely to sustain price pressures |
| High transportation costs | Expected to maintain inflation upside |
| Electricity supply challenges | Pass-through effect of previous cost increases |
| Month-on-month inflation trend | Slower readings provide some optimism |
The recently announced framework agreement between the United States and Iran, which has eased tensions in the Middle East and reduced concerns over disruptions to global oil supply, could provide some relief to energy and transportation costs, if the deal and lower crude oil prices are sustained.
This may help moderate imported inflation pressures and ease logistics costs across the domestic economy.
However, inflation risks remain tilted to the upside. Several leading economies (like The US and EU) continue to face sticky inflation, particularly in food and services, which could keep global commodity prices elevated and limit the pace of disinflation.
Domestically, persistent insecurity in key agricultural regions, high transportation costs, electricity supply challenges, and the pass-through effect of previous cost increases are likely to sustain price pressures.
Overall, while easing energy market conditions and slower month on month inflation readings provide some optimism, inflation is expected to remain elevated in the near term as both global and domestic cost pressures continue to influence price formation.
Nigeria’s headline inflation declining 10.13% year-on-year from 26.06% to 15.93% marks a significant disinflation milestone, though the 0.24% month-on-month increase suggests price pressures persist. The divergence between declining annual inflation and rising monthly inflation indicates that while the year-on-year comparison benefits from higher base effects, underlying price dynamics remain challenging.
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