An expert, Benjamin Ekeyi, has described Nigeria’s 4.43 per cent Q2 2026 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth as encouraging, but cautioned against declaring the economy firmly on a sustainable recovery path.
Ekeyi, a Public Finance Management and Governance expert, said this in an interview with the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) in Abuja on Thursday, while reacting to Nigeria’s latest GDP report.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) had reported that Nigeria’s real GDP grew by 4.43 per cent year-on-year in Q2 2026, higher than the 4.23 per cent recorded in quarter two of 2025.
The NBS said in nominal terms, aggregate GDP stood at N119.29 trillion in Q2 2026, compared with N100.73 trillion in Q2 2025, representing an 18.43 per cent year-on-year increase.
The expert said sustained recovery would require several consecutive quarters of growth driven increasingly by productivity, private investment, manufacturing, agriculture and infrastructure.
According to him, continued dependence on oil prices and production levels remains a major vulnerability to the economy.
Ekeyi also said the GDP growth had yet to translate into significant improvement in the living standards of ordinary Nigerians.
He described the situation as a “growth-welfare gap”, where improvements in macroeconomic indicators might not immediately translate into relief for households.
Ekeyi said that poverty remained high, while food insecurity, inflation, high transport costs, weak real wages, unemployment and rising business costs continued to constrain household welfare.
He cited International Monetary Fund (IMF) figures indicating that poverty stood at 63 per cent while about 27 million Nigerians faced food insecurity in late 2025.
He also cited the NBS figures showing headline inflation at 15.43 per cent and food inflation at 20.31 per cent.
“True economic success should not be measured by GDP alone, but by whether Nigerians are earning more, finding jobs, affording food and experiencing a reduction in poverty,” he said.
On the risks to the growth outlook, Ekeyi identified inflation, oil price and production vulnerability, insecurity, weak industrial capacity, fiscal constraints and debt-service pressure, and policy inconsistency.
He said higher international prices of food, fuel and fertiliser could trigger renewed inflationary pressures and weaken household purchasing power.
According to him, oil-sector growth was an important contributor to the second-quarter performance, with production rising to about 1.72 million barrels per day(bpd) from 1.55 million bpd in the first quarter.
Ekeyi, however, warned that falling oil prices, production disruptions and insecurity in oil-producing areas could negatively affect growth and government revenue.
The expert said insecurity remained a major threat to agriculture, investment, transportation, oil production and rural economic activities.
He also expressed concern over the performance of the industrial sector, which grew by 3.96 per cent in the second quarter, compared with 7.46 per cent in the second quarter of 2025.
Ekeyi said stronger industrial and manufacturing activity was necessary to create large-scale employment and achieve sustainable growth.
He said fiscal constraints and debt-service pressures could also limit the government’s ability to finance infrastructure, security, social protection and human-capital development.
The expert urged the government to maintain consistency in its economic policies, warning that frequent policy changes could weaken investor confidence and undermine ongoing reforms.
To make growth more inclusive, Ekeyi called for increased investment in food production, infrastructure and job-creating sectors.
He urged the government to expand agricultural productivity through irrigation, improved inputs, mechanisation, storage facilities, rural roads and improved security.
Ekeyi also advocated measures to reduce the cost of doing business through improved electricity supply, efficient transportation, affordable credit and a predictable regulatory environment especially for MSMEs and manufacturers.
According to him, the government should prioritise sectors capable of absorbing Nigeria’s large labour force, including agriculture, agro-processing, manufacturing, construction, digital services and the creative economy.
“GDP growth without employment growth will not adequately address the welfare problem,” he said.
The expert also called for stronger and better-targeted social protection programmes to cushion vulnerable households from the impact of economic reforms.
He said cash transfers should be complemented with interventions in food security, healthcare, education, affordable transportation and employment.
On revenue mobilisation, he called for a broader tax base, improved compliance and reduced leakages rather than simply increasing the tax burden on businesses and households.
Ekeyi further urged the authorities to sustain efforts to stabilise the exchange rate, rebuild external reserves, contain inflation and strengthen confidence in monetary policy.
He said the improvement in reserves and external resilience had supported the economic outlook, but stressed that maintaining macroeconomic stability remained critical to consolidating the recovery.
Ekeyi said the ultimate test of Nigeria’s economic recovery would be whether stronger GDP growth translated into more jobs, higher household incomes, lower food costs and reduced poverty.
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