Nigeria pumped 1.49 million barrels a day of crude in April, still below its OPEC quota of 1.50 million barrels a day for a ninth straight month, underscoring the pressure production shortfalls continue to place on oil revenue and foreign-exchange inflows.
Total output, including condensates, rose to 1.66 million barrels a day, according to the latest data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
It was the strongest reading of 2026 so far, but still not enough to close the gap with the government’s budget assumptions.
Budget Gap
The 2026 budget is built on an oil production benchmark of 1.84 million barrels a day, well above the average 1.58 million barrels a day recorded in the first four months of the year.
This leaves a 260,000 bpd gap against the 1.84 mbpd budget benchmark, threatening to widen the national deficit. That mismatch could widen funding stress, weaken reserve accretion and force greater reliance on borrowing at a time when authorities are trying to ease domestic debt issuance.
Crude prices above $100 a barrel have helped cushion the revenue hit, supported by heightened tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and supply disruptions elsewhere. Even so, the price tailwind only partly offsets the volume weakness.
Production Headwinds
Nigeria’s output recovery remains constrained by infrastructure bottlenecks, underinvestment and persistent operational inefficiencies in the upstream sector. Security interventions and pipeline surveillance contracts are helping at the margin, but the gains have not yet been enough to push production sustainably above quota.
Recent reforms, including license reallocations and new surveillance measures, may improve flows gradually over time. For now, though, the key risk is that lower-than-planned production continues to limit fiscal room and external liquidity even as prices remain elevated.
Outlook
The trend points to modest improvement rather than a decisive rebound. If production stabilizes closer to quota while prices stay firm, Nigeria should see some support for oil revenue and reserves, but not enough to fully erase the drag from chronic underperformance in the upstream sector.
Deficit Financing Pressures: This revenue shortfall comes at a delicate time. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) recently trimmed the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) to 26.5% to combat elevated borrowing costs, while fiscal authorities are actively trying to trim domestic debt allocations. Persistent oil revenue deficits could force a reversal of this tightening stance, increasing reliance on external borrowing or central bank financing.
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