Seplat Target Price Set at ₦12,803 as Production Set to Hit 150k boepd

Following a transformative FY’25 performance, Seplat Energy Plc has received a massive valuation upgrade.

CardinalStone research analysts have revised the company’s 12-month Target Price (TP) to ₦12,803.10, driven by a dual-engine growth strategy: an aggressive 17-well drilling campaign and the successful integration of its massive 2.5 billion barrel (Bboe) reserve base.

As of March 17, 2026, Seplat is transitioning from a mid-cap producer to a diversified energy giant, with its ANOH Gas Plant now fully operational and its offshore assets undergoing a major reliability overhaul.

Revised Price Benchmarks: The “War Premium”

The revision reflects the “new normal” in the energy markets, where vessel security and shipping insurance costs have become significant price drivers.

2026 Revenue Forecast: Oil Dominance & NGL Surge

While crude oil remains the lifeblood of the company, the most dramatic growth is occurring in the NGL segment following the successful Inlet Gas Exchanger (IGE) replacement.

• Total Revenue: $3.2 Billion (+17.0% YoY)

• Crude Oil Revenue: $2.8 Billion (Dominant line supported by $75 realization).

• Gas Revenue: $242.1 Million (Reflecting $3.0/Mscf pricing power).

• NGL Revenue: $142.8 Million (+165.0% YoY).

Production Outlook: The Road to 150k boepd

Seplat is eyeing a significant jump in Working Interest Production (WIP) for FY’26, supported by the restoration of idle wells and new drilling.

Source: CardinalStone Research

• Well Restoration: After successfully adding 49.0 kbpd via 49 wells in 2025, Seplat plans to restore 50 additional wells in 2026. While the yield per well may slightly moderate, the sheer volume of candidates ensures a near-term production uplift.

• The “Jack-up” Entry: Seplat has contracted the Shelf Drilling Victory rig on a 2-year term starting Q3’26. This rig will target two new infill wells on the Oso field, marking a major offshore expansion.

Strategic Pivot: Gas and NGL Monetization

Seplat is effectively using gas as a structural hedge against oil price volatility, which has been rampant due to the US/Israel-Iran conflict.

• ANOH Success: The ANOH gas plant achieved “first gas” in January 2026 and is currently maintaining a stable output of 50–70 MMscfd.

• NGL Step-up: The replacement of the Inlet Gas Exchanger (IGE) in December 2025 has been a game-changer. WIP NGL volumes hit a peak of 16.8 kbopd in February 2026—a massive jump from the 4.1 kbopd average in 2025.

LPG Diversification: The planned mid-2026 commencement of the Sapele Integrated Gas Plant (SIGP) LPG module will further broaden the revenue base into domestic cooking gas.

Fiscal Efficiency: The PIA Advantage

Seplat’s conversion to the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) framework is significantly improving its bottom line by lowering its tax burden.

• • Tax Rate Drop: The Effective Tax Rate (ETR) for onshore assets plummeted to 68.0% in FY’25 (from over 83% previously).

  • Offshore Conversion: Engagements are currently progressing for the PIA conversion of offshore assets, which is expected to drive further moderation in the Group’s overall tax expense in 2026.

“Model adjustments translate to an updated 12-month TP of N12,803.10 (vs N9,121.64 previously), based on the official exchange rate of N1,365.12/$ as of the 13th of March 2026. Our TP implies an upside of 40.7% to the current market price of N9,099.90 and an unchanged BUY recommendation on the counter. Supporting our positive outlook, SEPLAT’s current EV/EBITDA sits at 3.5x, a significant discount relative to its MEA peer average of 7.9x,” CardinalStone Research analysts said.

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