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In a report published on January 1, JP Morgan listed as its third prediction for the top ten surprises of 2024 that Joe Biden will drop out of the 2024 presidential elections due to health reasons.
The full prediction states that “President Biden withdraws sometime between Super Tuesday and the November election, citing health reasons. Biden passes the torch to a replacement candidate named by the Democratic National Committee.”
This prediction cites Biden’s low approval rating, as well as his approximately 10% job creation since his inauguration, although his inauguration coincided with the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines and the reopening of the US economy.
Biden has the lowest approval rating of the last 10 presidents in the same time period, at 38%.
The first prediction for 2024 is that the US dollar will remain stable and the second prediction is that the DoJ/FTC will win a big antitrust case.
These predictions were written by Michael Cembalist, Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy for JP Morgan Asset & Wealth Management, in honor of market strategist Byron Wien, who passed away last year at the age of 90.
For over 30 years whether at Morgan Stanley or Blackstone, Byron published a top ten list of surprises for the following year. This list is published in JP Morgan’s Eye On The Market 2024 Outlook entitled “Pillowtalk.”
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