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IMF Forecasts Nigerian GDP Growth of 2.9% This Year

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reduced its GDP growth forecast for the Nigerian economy in 2023, issuing revised figures in its World Economic Outlook report released on Tuesday.

The IMF now expects Nigeria’s GDP to grow 2.9% this year, a sharp increase from its July projection of 3.2 percent.

The IMF disclosed this in its new World Economic Outlook (for October) themed, ‘Navigating Global Divergences,’ released on Tuesday.

“For Nigeria, in particular, we have a growth forecast that goes from 3.3 percent in 2022 to 2.9 percent this year [2023], before going up to 3.1 percent in 2024. There is a downward revision for this year. Partly, this is because of the demonetization, the high inflation, the shocks to agriculture and hydrocarbon output. That is coming on top of those external headwinds,” the IMF said.

“I would also add that President Tinubu has moved quickly with important reforms, including ending the fuel subsidies and unifying the official exchange rate. We welcome these initial bold reforms because we see them as paving the way toward stronger and inclusive growth.”

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, Nigeria’s GDP grew by 2.51 per cent in the second quarter of 2023.

Growth in the sub-Saharan African region is expected to decline to 3.3 per cent in 2023 due to worsening weather shocks, the global slowdown, and domestic supply issues, the IMF noted.

It, however, stated that this growth will begin to rise by 2024 to 4.0 per cent in 2024, which is still below the region’s historical average of 4.8 per cent.

Overall, global economic growth is projected to slow from 3.5 per cent in 2022 to 3.0 per cent in 2023 and 2.9 per cent in 2024, well below the historical (2000–19) average of 3.8 per cent, the IMF declared.

It added, “Advanced economies are expected to slow from 2.6 per cent in 2022 to 1.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.4 per cent in 2024 as policy tightening starts to bite. Emerging market and developing economies are projected to have a modest decline in growth from 4.1 per cent in 2022 to 4.0 per cent in both 2023 and 2024.”

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