Nigeria has recorded its largest merchandise trade surplus in recent economic history. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows the country’s trade balance skyrocketed to ₦7.55 trillion for the first quarter of 2026—a spectacular 340.88% surge compared to the preceding quarter.
This dramatic shift reveals a structural transformation in West Africa’s macro ledger. The long-awaited operational scale-up of the 650,000 barrels per day (bpd) Dangote Petroleum Refinery has successfully cut domestic fuel import bills while simultaneously transforming Nigeria into a major global supplier of refined middle distillates.
Crude oil remained Nigeria’s dominant export commodity, generating ₦11.20 trillion and accounting for 52.92% of total exports.
While crude oil exports declined 13.53% from ₦12.96 trillion recorded a year earlier, they increased 15.45% compared to the previous quarter. Other petroleum product exports surged 51.49% year-on-year to ₦6.78 trillion, reflecting the Dangote Refinery’s impact on refined product exports.
Top export destinations (Q1 2026)
| Country | Export Value (₦) | Share of Total Exports |
|---|---|---|
| India | 2.77 trillion | 13.09% |
| France | 1.97 trillion | 9.31% |
| Netherlands | 1.95 trillion | 9.21% |
| Spain | 1.63 trillion | 7.68% |
| United States | 1.18 trillion | 5.57% |
| Top 5 total | 9.50 trillion | 44.84% |
Machinery and transport equipment remained the largest import category, valued at ₦5.01 trillion and accounting for 36.79% of total imports. Mineral fuels followed with ₦2.65 trillion, while chemicals and related products accounted for ₦2.02 trillion.
| Category | Amount (₦) | Share of Imports |
|---|---|---|
| Machinery & transport equipment | 5.01 trillion | 36.79% |
| Mineral fuels | 2.65 trillion | 19.46% |
| Chemicals & related products | 2.02 trillion | 14.83% |
| Crude petroleum oils | 1.91 trillion | — |
| Gas oil | 364.42 billion | — |
| Durum wheat | 340.07 billion | — |
| Telecommunications equipment | 299.56 billion | — |
| Used diesel vehicles | 284.07 billion | — |
China retained its position as Nigeria’s largest source of imports, supplying goods worth ₦5.10 trillion or 37.42% of total imports. The United States followed with imports valued at ₦2.81 trillion.
Dangote Refinery impact
The NBS attributed the trade surplus largely to lower petroleum product imports and higher crude oil exports.
The 51.49% surge in other petroleum product exports to ₦6.78 trillion reflects the Dangote Refinery’s impact on reducing Nigeria’s dependence on refined fuel imports and enabling the country to export refined products instead.
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