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NY Times Poll: Republicans Have Edge in Nov 8 Midterm Elections

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The economy and inflation account for Republicans grabbing an edge among voters with the midterms approaching, according to a new survey.

The GOP holds a 49% to 45% advantage among voters who were asked which party they want representing them in Congress, the Times/Siena College poll found.

In the September Times/Siena poll, Democrats clung to a 1-point edge.

A big reason for the turnaround is independent voters now favoring Republicans by 10 percentage points, compared to Democrats’ 3-point advantage last month.

Independent women especially have migrated toward the GOP, with an 18-point Democrat cushion last month becoming a 14-point Republican lead.

That swing indicates the economy remains a far more important political issue than abortion, which most Democrat candidates have emphasized.

Among women overall, the poll shows that Republicans have erased what was an 11-point edge last month and moved into a statistical tie.

“I’m shifting more towards Republican because I feel like they’re more geared towards business,” said Robin Ackerman, a 37-year-old Democrat and mortgage loan officer who lives in New Castle, Delaware. She told the Times she’s planning to vote Republican.

Ackerman said she disagreed “1,000 percent” with the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, “but that doesn’t really have a lot to do with my decision. I’m more worried about other things.”

The Times/Siena poll joins others recent surveys indicating that Republicans are favored to regain control of the House in the Nov. 8 election.

The Times reports that since July, economic concerns have jumped from 36% to 44% as the No. 1 issue among voters — far higher than any other issue.

Voters most concerned about the economy favor GOP candidates 64% to 30%. Democrats held an edge of 20 percentage points among voters who cared the most about any other issue.

“It’s all about cost,” Gerard Lamoureux, a 51-year-old Democrat retiree in Newtown, Connecticut, told the Times. “The price of gas and groceries are through the roof. And I want to eat healthy, but it’s cheaper for me to go to McDonald’s and get a little meal than it is to cook dinner.”

Lamoureux told the Times he planned to vote Republican.

Although a sitting president’s party normally loses seats in a midterm election, President Joe Biden’s disapproval rating of 58% — including 63% among independent voters — creates an added challenge for Democrats, the Times reported.

The Times/Siena poll showed that 45% of likely voters strongly disapprove of the job Biden is doing, with 90% of those voters planning to back a Republican for Congress.

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