The Nigerian downstream sector has reached a historic turning point. According to the NMDPRA’s March 2026 “State of the Downstream Sector” report, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery operated at a staggering 93.62% average capacity utilization, producing enough fuel to theoretically cover 100% of Nigeria’s domestic petrol needs.
However, a strategic surge in international exports meant that while production outpaced demand, the local market shared the supply with high-value foreign buyers across Africa and Europe.
The March 2026 Breakdown: Production vs. Market Supply
The refinery’s output has officially transitioned Nigeria into a Net Petrol Exporter status, a feat unimaginable just two years ago.
| Metric | Volume (March 2026) | Market Impact |
| Total Petrol Output | 1.49 Billion Litres | 48.2 Million Litres/Day (303,000 b/d) |
| Domestic Supply | 1.06 Billion Litres | Supplied 72.3% of Nigeria’s local demand. |
| Total Exports | 434 Million Litres | ~44,000 b/d (First gasoline exports ever). |
| Capacity Utilization | 93.62% | Near full-nameplate capacity for gasoline units. |
Source: NMDPRA
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The Export Pivot: Of the 1.49 billion litres produced, nearly 29% (434 million litres) was shipped to international markets, including a landmark delivery to Mozambique.
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Domestic Shortfall: Despite the production high, domestic petrol consumption fell by 16.9% (to 47.3m litres/day) as high prices forced consumers to ration. This allowed the refinery to ship its surplus abroad while still meeting nearly three-quarters of local demand.
Diversification: Diesel and Aviation Fuel
The refinery is not just a gasoline story; its impact on the “Middle Distillate” market is equally disruptive.
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Diesel (AGO): Dangote produced 16.5 million litres/day of diesel in March. Interestingly, only 2.2 million litres/day were supplied domestically, meaning over 85% of diesel production is currently being exported to Europe and neighboring African nations to capture higher “war-risk” premiums.
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Aviation Fuel: As European refineries struggle with crude supply, Dangote has become a vital source of Jet A1, with shipments to Europe hitting record levels in March and April.
Pricing Volatility: The 9-Adjustment Quarter
Reflecting its “market-driven” approach, Dangote Refinery adjusted its petrol gantry prices 9 times in Q1 2026.
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The Price Rollercoaster: Gantry prices swung from a low of ₦699 in January to a peak of ₦1,275 in late March, driven by Brent crude crossing $110 per barrel due to the Iran conflict.
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Current Rate: As of early April, the refinery has recalibrated its pricing to approximately ₦1,200 per litre (ex-depot), mirroring global oil trends while attempting to sustain domestic offtake.
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