Nigeria Reopens Gasoline Imports as Middle East War Strains Supply

In a swift policy recalibration, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) has relaxed its “local-first” gasoline restrictions, issuing new import licenses for the first time since October 2025.

The move comes as the escalating U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict creates a “war premium” on shipping and raises fears of a domestic shortfall.

While the Dangote Petroleum Refinery successfully met over 92% of national demand in February, the regulator is now moving to bridge a emerging gap by authorizing six local marketers to import a total of 180,000 metric tons (mt) of gasoline.

The Import Pivot: March 2026 Data

The decision marks a departure from the February stance, where no import licenses were issued due to the strength of domestic refining.

• The “Hormuz” Factor: With the Strait of Hormuz facing a “virtual standstill,” the NMDPRA is concerned that any delay in crude delivery to local refineries or a spike in global “landed costs” could trigger a pump price crisis.

• Operational Buffer: The 180,000 mt of imported gasoline acts as a strategic reserve, ensuring that the Nigerian market remains “wet” even if domestic utilization rates fluctuate during the geopolitical crisis.

Market Pricing: Balancing “At-Cost” and “War Premiums”

The re-entry of imports introduces a complex pricing dynamic. While Dangote recently slashed its gantry price to ₦1,075 per litre, imported fuel is subject to volatile global benchmarks.

• FOB Lekki vs. Imports: Domestic prices currently track global benchmarks plus a $3 to $6 premium. However, imports are facing soaring shipping insurance and security costs due to the Middle East conflict, making the “landed cost” of imported fuel potentially higher than local production.

• Competitive Pressure: By licensing six depot owners, the regulator is preventing a “single-point-of-failure” monopoly. This ensures that marketers like TotalEnergies, Conoil, and MRS can maintain their own stock levels independent of a single supplier.

The $150 Oil Threat

The relaxation of imports is also a pre-emptive strike against the possibility of crude oil hitting $150 per barrel.

• Refinery Protection: Local refineries are currently purchasing crude at global market rates. If global prices skyrocket, the NMDPRA wants multiple “inflow pipes” (both local and imported) to prevent a total supply collapse.

• Consumer Impact: For the “impecunious consumer,” this move is intended to keep pump prices from spiraling toward the ₦1,500 mark by ensuring that scarcity does not drive prices higher than the actual cost of the product.

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