Tinubu Reforms Power Nigeria Stocks Past New Zealand as Bonds Crush EM Peers

Nigeria’s stocks, bonds and naira are surging as investors embrace President Bola Tinubu’s economic overhaul.

Nigeria’s NGX All-Share Index has rocketed 66% in dollar terms this year, with 12-month gains nearing 200% and a market capitalization of $104 billion that has surpassed New Zealand’s and now rivals Portugal and Ireland in size.

This historic outperformance by Nigerian capital markets is being driven by the aggressive execution of President Bola Tinubu’s economic agenda.

By dismantling long-standing distortions—such as the fuel subsidy and a fragmented foreign exchange regime—Nigeria has transitioned from a “credibility discount” to a primary destination for emerging-market capital.

Market Performance Snapshot

Nigeria’s financial indicators reflect a significant return of investor confidence, further bolstered by surging oil prices amid the ongoing Middle East conflict.

Local-currency bonds have returned 14% in dollar terms year-to-date, outperforming all major emerging markets except Argentina and Brazil, while the naira currency has strengthened almost 6% and ranks as Africa’s No. 2 performer behind Zambia’s kwacha.

Nigeria’s dollar bonds have returned 5%, compared with an average of 1.3% for emerging markets, according to Bloomberg indexes.

Economic growth will accelerate to 4.1% this year, compared with 3.3% when Tinubu came into office three years ago, according to the International Monetary Fund.

Investors Return

Foreign inflows into Nigeria equities surged to ₦181.8 billion in March 2026, more than doubling the February figure of ₦72.3 billion.

“Nigeria is transitioning from a credibility discount to an execution story,” said Romain Bordenave of Edmond de Rothschild.

Corporate Sector Stars

Sector leaders in cement, banking, and energy have seen triple-digit gains as they capture the “growth dividend” of the current administration.

Source: NGX

Strategic Catalysts: FTSE and Dangote

Two major structural events are expected to institutionalize these gains and provide a massive injection of liquidity into the market by late 2026:

• FTSE Russell Reclassification: Nigeria will be reclassified to Frontier Market status in September 2026. This move will trigger automatic inflows from global index-tracker funds that have been on the sidelines.

• Dangote Refinery IPO: Aliko Dangote has confirmed plans to float 10% of the refinery (valued between $25bn–$45bn) on the Nigerian Exchange, with secondary listings elsewhere in Africa. This listing alone could increase the total market cap of the NGX by over 30%.

Macroeconomic Outlook

The IMF projects Nigeria’s GDP growth to accelerate to 4.1% this year. This optimism is supported by:

• Credit Rating Upgrades: Upgrades from Moody’s and Fitch in 2025, which lowered the sovereign risk premium.

• Oil Windfall: Higher global crude prices have provided a fiscal buffer, supporting the naira and government revenue.