Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals FZE generated $2.60 billion of EBITDA in the first half of 2026, delivering an 18.7% margin as the facility moved closer to full utilization and captured higher values from gasoline, diesel and jet fuel.
The half-year performance is the clearest evidence yet of the earnings power behind the proposed “People’s IPO.”
Renaissance Capital Africa estimates Dangote Refinery’s post-IPO equity value at $57.11 billion to $65.44 billion, equivalent to $0.46 to $0.53 a share, or about ₦608.20 to ₦696.94 a share on a post-offer, enlarged-share-count basis, positioning the high end fair value some 32% above the SEC-approved public offer price of ₦525.00 per share.
The investment case rests on the refinery’s unusually high complexity, scale, low operating costs and ability to sell products domestically or abroad depending on where netbacks are strongest. It also depends on execution of a planned Phase 2 expansion that would double crude-processing capacity to 1.4 million barrels a day.
Dangote Refinery reported revenue of $13.91 billion in the six months through June 2026, gross profit of $2.50 billion and net income of $1.82 billion. The refinery averaged 83.6% utilization over the period, climbing from about 45% in January to full crude-distillation-unit utilization by the second quarter, according to the Renaissance report.
The $2.60 billion first-half EBITDA was almost five times the refinery’s $545.3 million EBITDA for the whole of 2025. The comparison reflects the rapid move from ramp-up operations toward steadier production after improvements to the Residual Fluid Catalytic Cracker, or RFCC, and a shift away from lower-value reduced crude oil output.
Margin story
The refinery’s gross refining margin (GRM) rose to $24.50 a barrel in H1 2026, compared with $13.70 a barrel in 2025 and $10.70 a barrel in 2024. In the first quarter alone, the margin reached $33.70 a barrel before easing in the second quarter as conflict-driven global crack spreads normalized.
Renaissance estimates that the H1 average implies a second-quarter gross refining margin of around $18 a barrel, reflecting a sharp normalization from first-quarter highs. Its 2026 forecast nevertheless assumes a full-year GRM of $27.55 a barrel, implying a renewed strengthening to roughly $29 to $30 a barrel in the second half.
The H1’26 EBITDA margin was 18.7%, according to the report.
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