Guaranty Trust Holding Co. (GTCO) reported a sharp increase in fraud-related losses in the first half (H1) of 2026 even as the number of recorded incidents declined, underscoring how fewer but larger-value attacks are reshaping operational risk for Nigerian lenders.
GTCO disclosed 9,730 fraud and forgery incidents for the period ended June 2026, down from 15,469 reported for the full year 2025, according to data from its H1 financial statement seen by MoneyCentral.
The amount involved nevertheless rose to ₦3.05 billion from ₦2.58 billion, while actual or expected naira losses climbed to ₦1.48 billion from ₦269.4 million. The group also reported $97,460 in fraud exposure, though it reported no actual or expected loss in dollars for the half year.
The comparison is not like-for-like: the 2026 disclosure covers six months, versus a full-year period in 2025. Still, the direction of travel is notable. By midyear, the group had already reported fraud exposure above the prior year’s full-year value, and actual or expected losses were more than five times the 2025 level.
| Measure | H1 2026 | FY 2025 | Change* |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fraud and forgery incidents | 9,730 | 15,469 | -37.1% |
| Amount involved | ₦3.05B | ₦2.58B | +18.4% |
| Actual or expected loss | ₦1.48B | ₦269.4M | +450.3% |
| Amount involved | $97,460 | $200,750 | -51.5% |
| Actual or expected loss | $0 | $470 | — |
Source: GTCO H1 2026 financial statements
The data indicate a clear deterioration in the severity of losses. The implied loss rate—the share of naira fraud exposure that translated into actual or expected loss—rose to about 48.6% in H1 2026 from approximately 10.5% in 2025.
That suggests a greater proportion of reported value was not recovered, prevented or otherwise contained.
On an annualized basis, the H1 2026 incident run rate would imply about 19,460 cases, higher than 2025’s 15,469. More strikingly, annualized naira fraud exposure could reach roughly ₦6.10 billion, while annualized actual or expected losses would approach ₦2.97 billion if first-half conditions persisted.
GTCO disclosed the figures under Section 5.1.2(L) of the Central Bank of Nigeria’s corporate-governance code, which requires disclosure of fraud and forgery information for the financial period,
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