Nigeria’s capital importation surged 83.80% year-on-year to a record $10.37 billion in Q1 2026, up from $5.64 billion in Q1 2025 and rising 61.00% quarter-on-quarter from $6.44 billion in Q4 2025, reflecting a sharp, broad-based acceleration in foreign participation driven overwhelmingly by foreign portfolio investment.
Capital inflow breakdown
| Category | Amount ($) | Share of Total |
|---|---|---|
| Total capital importation | 10.37 billion | 100% |
| Foreign portfolio investment | 9.86 billion | 95.10% |
| Foreign direct investment | 135.08 million | 1.30% |
| Banking sector | 7.55 billion | 72.80% |
| Financing activities | 2.43 billion | 23.40% |
| Manufacturing | 152.30 million | 1.50% |
Source: MoneyCentral, NBS
| Country | Amount ($) | Share of Total |
|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | 5.08 billion | 49.01% |
| United States | 3.18 billion | 30.69% |
| South Africa | 980 million | 9.49% |
Source: MoneyCentral, NBS
Foreign portfolio investment accounted for 95.10% ($9.86 billion) of total inflows while FDI accounted for just 1.30% ($135.08 million). The banking sector stayed the primary gateway, attracting $7.55 billion (72.80%), while financing activities followed at $2.43 billion (23.40%), leaving manufacturing at a marginal 1.50% ($152.30 million).
This structure highlights that, despite the strong headline expansion compared to Q1 2025, capital importation remains largely a financial-market-driven cycle rather than a shift toward productive long-term investment.
Drivers of acceleration
The strong YoY acceleration versus Q1 2025 was driven by improved FX market functioning, exchange rate flexibility, and relatively attractive domestic yields (14.96% vs 18.67% in the prior period), which collectively restored offshore appetite for Nigerian fixed-income assets.
This translated into an 8.54% YoY growth in capital inflows’ contribution to GDP, reaching 3.76% in Q1 2026.
In addition, improved liquidity conditions, stronger financial intermediation, banking sector recapitalization, and enhanced confidence effects within the services and financial sectors remained key drivers of GDP growth.
Outlook
Analysts expect the growth in FPI to be sustained, supported by macroeconomic stability, expected moderation in inflation, still attractive domestic yields, improved sovereign credit ratings from S&P Global, Fitch, and Moody’s, and credible FX policy execution. However, this growth may be constrained by repricing pressures in the global economy amid ongoing geopolitical escalation.
In contrast, FDI growth is likely to remain subdued due to persistent infrastructure bottlenecks, insecurity concerns, and potential reversals in global risk sentiment.
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