Nigeria’s Dangote refinery supplied roughly 250,000 b/d of gasoline to the domestic market in January, covering 62% of local consumption, according to new data from the country’s fuel regulator Feb. 15.
A monthly report from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority showed that the Dangote facility delivered an average of 40.1 million liters of gasoline to the local market each day, up by 25% from December levels to hit an all-time high.
January 2026: By the Numbers
The NMDPRA “State of the Downstream” report highlights the refinery’s growing role in stabilizing the domestic market:
| Metric | January 2026 Data | Significance |
| Daily Delivery | 40.1 Million Liters | All-time high for domestic PMS supply. |
| Market Share | 61.78% | Surpassed imported volumes |
| Utilization Rate | 61.27% | Successful ramp-up despite Jan. maintenance works. |
| National Demand | 60.2 Million Liters | Consumption eased slightly after the festive peak. |
Source: NMDPRA
Price Recalibration: The ₦774 Factor
The surge in supply has directly influenced pricing. On February 10, 2026, the Dangote Refinery announced a strategic price cut:
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Ex-Depot Price: Reduced by ₦25, from ₦799 to ₦774 per liter.
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Direct Sales: The refinery is increasingly bypassing traditional intermediaries, selling directly to major marketers like MRS, Heyden, and Ardova, as well as the NNPC Retail network.
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Economic Impact: Analysts, including Femi Otedola, suggest that this sustained domestic supply will be the primary driver for the Naira to potentially strengthen toward ₦1,000/$1 by year-end due to reduced dollar demand for fuel imports.
Operational Resilience and Expansion
The facility’s performance in January is particularly notable because it coincided with a scheduled maintenance window:
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The “Turnaround”: The refinery successfully completed a 72-hour performance validation program with technology licensor UOP and a short maintenance cycle on its Crude Distillation Unit (CDU) in late January.
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Surplus Potential: While current supply is ~40m liters, CEO David Bird confirmed the plant is already capable of pushing 50 million liters daily, with a future target of 75 million liters—well above Nigeria’s total daily consumption.
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Roofless Replication: Looking ahead, the refinery has begun ordering long-lead items for a $12 billion expansion to reach 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd), aimed at making Nigeria the refining hub for all of West Africa.
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