Analysts at Goldman Sachs expect global oil demand to return to pre-pandemic levels by 2022, citing a pick-up in commuting, a shift to private transportation and higher infrastructure spending.
In a research note published Thursday, analysts at the U.S. investment bank estimated global oil demand would decline by 8% in 2020, rebound by 6% in 2021 and “fully recover” to pre-coronavirus levels by 2022.
Diesel demand was forecast to recover to 2019 levels by 2021, boosted by government-led spending on infrastructure projects.
However, Goldman Sachs warned jet fuel demand had been the “biggest loser” from the coronavirus crisis, with consumer confidence on flying set to stay low in the absence of a vaccine and consumer behavior potentially set to change over the long term.
The forecast comes after oil prices staged a dramatic recovery in the three months through to June, notching their best quarterly performance in 30 years.
International benchmark Brent crude futures traded at $42.75 a barrel on Thursday afternoon, up around 1.7% for the session, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures stood at $40.43, around 1.5% higher.