The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) has capitalized on the severe supply disruptions caused by the Iran-Israel-U.S. war, raising the Official Selling Prices (OSPs) for all 37 Nigerian crude grades for May 2026.
This aggressive pricing move comes as Dated Brent prices surge toward $115 per barrel (as of April 30, 2026), following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and a “force majeure” declaration by QatarEnergy.
Nigeria, primarily an Atlantic-basin exporter, is currently the “unambiguous winner” of the conflict, as its crude grades—renowned for their low-sulfur “sweet” quality—are commanding record-breaking premiums from global refiners desperate for non-Middle Eastern feedstock.
The May Pricing Surge: Premium Performance
The price hike represents one of the largest month-on-month adjustments in recent years, driven by the global shortage of light, sweet crude.
| Crude Grade | May Premium to Dated Brent | MoM Increase | Total Price Estimate (USD)* |
| Bonny Light (Flagship) | +$6.86/b | +$6.13/b | ~$121.75/b |
| Forcados (High Volume) | +$8.49/b | +$7.01/b | ~$123.38/b |
| Antan Blend | +$9.33/b | Not Disclosed | ~$124.22/b |
| Nigerian Average | +$6.15/b (Avg) | — | ~$121.04/b |
Source: S&P Platts. *Estimated based on Dated Brent trading at ~$114.89/b on April 28-30, 2026.
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The “Premium” Play: By raising the premium of Bonny Light to $6.86 over Brent, NNPC is ensuring that Nigeria captures the maximum “War Premium.” International buyers are paying these prices to avoid the 40% freight-risk surge associated with Gulf-origin crude.
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Forcados Dominance: The $8.49 premium for Forcados reflects its critical role for European refiners who are pivoting away from Middle Eastern medium-sweet grades.
Fiscal Impact: Strengthening the 2026 “Budget of Consolidation”
The timing of this hike is a major boost for Nigeria’s fiscal stability.
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Reserve Accretion: With crude trading at nearly double the 2026 budget benchmark of $64/barrel, the Excess Crude Account (ECA) and Foreign Reserves are expected to see significant growth.
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Stabilizing the Naira: Higher dollar inflows from these May cargoes are providing the Central Bank (CBN) with the “dry powder” needed to stabilize the Naira, even as other frontier currencies (like the Indian Rupee) lose value due to the war.
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