MTN Nigeria Communications Plc (MTNN) delivered a spectacular financial rebound for FY’25, effectively erasing the foreign exchange shadows of 2024.
In a detailed research note from Meristem Securities on March 13, 2026, analysts have slapped a BUY rating on the stock with a new target price of ₦1,019.31—representing a massive 30.83% upside from its recent closing price.
The rebound is anchored by a 55% surge in total revenue to ₦5.20 trillion, fueled by a digital explosion that saw data revenue alone contribute over half of the company’s entire income.
Valuation: The Path to ₦1,019
Meristem Securities’ bullish stance is based on a robust earnings-per-share (EPS) forecast and a stable macroeconomic outlook.
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Target Price: ₦1,019.31 (Current Price: ₦779.10).
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Projected EPS: ₦75.06.
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Target P/E Multiple: 13.58x.
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The Outlook: Despite risks from currency volatility, MTNN’s “first-mover” advantage in 5G and aggressive cost management are expected to sustain healthy net margins. The move toward AI-related services and smart home penetration provides a long-term runway for growth that voice services can no longer offer.
The ₦2.78 Trillion Data Engine
MTNN has successfully transitioned into a “Data-First” entity. The 74.6% surge in data revenue was not a fluke; it was the result of a coordinated strategy involving spectrum dominance and shifting consumer habits.
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Spectrum Advantage: The renewal of the 800MHz spectrum through 2034 and the national roaming agreement with T2 Mobile (formerly 9Mobile) have provided the network capacity to handle the 50% tariff adjustment without losing subscriber momentum.
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The “Smart” Pivot: Higher smartphone penetration and the adoption of AI-related services are driving users toward high-bandwidth applications like video streaming and digital commerce, which now account for 53.4% of total revenue.
Operational Efficiency: Taming the BTS Beast
While revenue soared by 55%, MTNN managed to keep operating expenses (OpEx) growth to just 21%, a significant feat in a high-inflation environment.
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Tower Lease Savings: Direct network costs rose moderately to ₦1.39 trillion. A key factor was the successful renegotiation of Base Transceiver Station (BTS) leases, converting dollar-linked contracts into Naira terms to neutralize currency shocks.
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Regulatory Spikes: Not all costs were contained; regulatory charges jumped 58.8% to ₦144.2 billion, reflecting the high cost of spectrum renewals and statutory fees in Nigeria’s tightening telco landscape.
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Cash Flow King: The most impressive metric was the 154.6% jump in operating cash flow, reaching ₦2.21 trillion. This has drastically improved the company’s ability to service debt, with the cash-flow-to-finance-cost ratio doubling to 4.21x.
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