Moody’s Ratings revised Nigeria’s credit outlook to positive, citing stronger-than-expected economic growth.
The improvements reflect stronger external buffers and greater macroeconomic stability, while rising oil production is expected to provide an additional boost to growth in 2026 and 2027, according to a statement Friday. The credit grader also affirmed the nation’s rating at B3, six levels below investment grade.
The economic growth, “if sustained, would enhance the country’s capacity to absorb external shocks, strengthen economic resilience and, over time, support a gradual increase in government revenue,” analysts Jorge Valez and Matt Robinson wrote.
The outlook revision brings Africa’s largest oil producer and refiner closer to a credit-rating upgrade and emphasizes President Bola Tinubu’s commitment to fiscal consolidation and reforms.
Tinubu, who is seeking a second term in elections next year, has unified the exchange rate and allowed the central bank to pursue orthodox monetary policy. The steps have helped attract foreign inflows, boosted external reserves and stabilized the naira.
The nation has also been benefiting from elevated crude prices, which have risen above its budget benchmark of $64.85 a barrel induced by shortages caused by the war in Iran, and tax reforms.
Collections jumped by 49% in the first five months of the year to ₦15.8 trillion ($11.8 billion) from ₦10.6 trillion a year earlier, surpassing the 11.6% baseline growth target for the period.
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