Nigerian companies are poised to report resilient third-quarter (Q3) earnings, with cement price increases, stronger crude oil, data consumption and lower borrowing costs expected to outweigh pressure from diesel, taxes and sector-specific supply disruptions, CardinalStone Research said.
The brokerage expects the strongest momentum in cement, oil and gas, telecoms and consumer goods.
It sees a more difficult quarter for power generators and palm-oil producers, where transmission constraints, weak local crude-palm-oil pricing and weather risks are expected to limit performance.
The forecast comes after a quarter marked by stronger domestic activity, slowing inflation and relative naira stability.
Nigeria’s Composite PMI rose to 51.1 in July and 52.7 in August, after two months of contraction, while the central bank cut its benchmark rate in September. The more supportive macro backdrop may strengthen consumer demand and moderate some input costs, but higher energy prices remain a major offset.
Cement Leads on Pricing
Cement producers are expected to post stronger year-on-year earnings as price increases implemented in the second quarter flow through a full three-month period.
CardinalStone estimates average realized prices in the industry will be about 13% to 25% higher than in the third quarter of 2025.
Dangote Cement’s Nigerian revenue per tonne reached ₦196,804 in the second quarter, compared with ₦173,462 a year earlier. BUA Cement’s average realization was ₦184,619 per tonne, 25.3% above the prior-year third quarter, while HBM Nigeria reported average realization of ₦202,076 per tonne, 15% above a year earlier.
Diesel and haulage expenses remain the main pressure point. Dangote’s CNG fleet rollout may reduce some transport costs, while BUA is more exposed because of the concentration of diesel-powered vehicles in its fleet. HBM is expected to benefit from pricing and efficiency gains, although a higher tax rate could restrain the conversion of operating gains into net profit.
Oil Earnings Gain Support
Oil and gas companies should benefit from higher crude prices and improving Nigerian production. Brent averaged $91.29 a barrel in the third quarter, up 33.9% from $68.17 a year earlier, according to CardinalStone. Domestic upstream output increased 8.6% year to date to 1.64 million barrels a day as of August.
CardinalStone expects Seplat to deliver its strongest quarterly performance of 2026, supported by higher oil prices, potential restoration of the Yoho platform and new-well activity.
It expects the company’s lower royalty and depreciation charges following its Petroleum Industry Act transition, combined with lower finance costs, to support profit before tax. The brokerage expects Seplat to declare at least 12 US cents in cumulative third-quarter dividend after paying 21 cents in the first half.
Aradel’s enlarged upstream portfolio and gas business are expected to support operating earnings. The key question is how much of that growth reaches shareholders after elevated finance costs related to ND Western and Renaissance, as well as the group’s high first-half tax charge.
CardinalStone also expects Aradel’s refinery utilization to improve as the company addresses operational bottlenecks and feedstock availability.
Data Drives Telecoms
Telecommunications companies are expected to benefit from continued growth in subscribers and data consumption.
Nigerian mobile subscriptions reached 195.1 million, up 15.2% year on year, while data subscribers rose to 157.7 million and data usage increased 26.7% to 1.7 million terabytes.
MTN Nigeria’s revenue growth should be led by data use and subscriber additions. Its first-half data revenue rose 8.9%, data subscribers increased 9.3%, and average monthly usage climbed 15.2% to 14.8 gigabytes. The relaunch of airtime and data-credit services in mid-July is expected to support a partial recovery in value-added-service revenue after a 79.8% quarterly decline in the second quarter.
Airtel Africa’s underlying data business remains strong: first-quarter data revenue rose 36.5% to $750 million, customer numbers reached 189 million and data customers rose to 87.3 million. Yet higher capital expenditure—up 221.5% to $389 million—will increase depreciation and lease-related finance costs, while currency translation may weaken reported earnings.
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