The surge in fuel margins that is set to give America’s biggest oil refiners record third-quarter profits is also likely to boost Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which ran above its nameplate capacity in August as diesel and jet fuel margins hit records.
Valero Energy, Marathon Petroleum and Phillips 66 are expected to beat their near-record second-quarter profits, the Wall Street Journal reported.
Conflict in the Middle East, damaged refineries and Ukrainian strikes on Russian plants have tightened fuel supply. JPMorgan says Valero’s Gulf Coast margin widened to $47.11 a barrel in the third quarter from $30.28 in the second.
Dangote sells into the same tight markets. US distillate and jet fuel crack spreads nearly tripled from a year earlier, according to the EIA, and Dangote Refinery was Europe’s largest jet fuel supplier in the second quarter.
Its quarter was however uneven. Throughput fell to 497,000 barrels a day in July after problems with a key conversion unit, then rose to a record 736,470 barrels a day in August, 105% of capacity. September data is not yet out.
MoneyCentral estimates show that using first-half costs from CardinalStone Research and an assumed September run of about 700,000 barrels a day, Dangote’s third-quarter net profit would be about $1.1 billion at its first-half margin of $30.70 a barrel.
At Valero’s Gulf Coast margin, it would be about $1.9 billion, more than the $1.82 billion it earned in the entire first half of 2026.
Dangote Refinery currently processes about 4% of US refining capacity, which stood at 18.2 million barrels a day in January. The planned expansion to 1.4 million barrels a day would take that to about 7.7%.
Billionaire Aliko Dangote has hinted that its third-quarter results will be released shortly after the end of its ongoing Initial Public Offering (IPO).
MoneyCentral initiated coverage of Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals FZE with a Buy recommendation and a 12-month target price of ₦1,020 per share, betting that stable operations at the 700,000-barrels-per-day complex and an eventual capacity doubling will drive a re-rating after the company’s initial public offering.
The target implies about 94.3% upside to the ₦525 offer price.
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