Investors are favoring traditional haven assets like Gold and perhaps lean into trades most linked to former President Donald Trump chances of winning the White House such Bitcoin after he survived an assassination attempt, according to market watchers.
Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com, said he was seeing client flows into Bitcoin and gold after the shooting.
“This news marks a changing point in American political norms,” he said. “For markets, it means haven trades but more skewed towards non-traditional havens.”
Initial market commentary suggested the shooting of Trump at a Saturday rally in Pennsylvania may also prompt traders to boost his probability of success in November’s election. His support for looser fiscal policy and higher tariffs are generally viewed as likely to benefit the dollar and weaken Treasuries.
One early weekend indicator of market sentiment: Bitcoin rose above $60,000, probably reflecting Trump’s pro-crypto stance.
Other assets positively linked to the so-called Trump trade include the shares of energy firms, credit-card companies and health insurance firms.
Traders will also closely watch market measures of expected volatility on Monday, such as those on the tariff-sensitive Chinese yuan and Mexican peso, which had begun to price in the US vote.
Trump said he was shot in the right ear after gunfire erupted at his rally. His campaign said in a statement that he was “fine” after the incident, which saw him rushed from the stage.
Bond investors should pay particular attention as the attack is likely to boost Trump’s election chances, and ultimately lead to worries about the fiscal outlook, according to Marko Papic, California-based chief strategist at BCA Research Inc.
“The bond market should at some point, become aware of President Trump’s higher odds of winning the White House than any of his rivals,” Papic wrote. “And I continue to believe that as his odds rise, so should the probability of a bond market riot.”
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