Macro Tailwinds Priming NGX for Bull Run in 2026 With ICT, Agriculture, Finance Set to Benefit

Nigeria’s macroeconomic landscape is shifting from “crisis management” to “stabilization and growth and is poised to benefit sectors such as ICT, Agriculture and Finance on the NGX in 2026.

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and major financial institutions like PwC and FSDH Merchant Bank project a GDP growth rate of 4.1% to 4.49% for the year, driven by the maturation of 2024–2025 reforms.

“Sectors like ICT, Agriculture, and Financial Services are poised to benefit from the improving macroeconomic conditions such as stable exchange rate, easing cost pressures, and accommodative, monetary policy stance in 2026,” Meristem analysts said in their 2026 outlook report.

ICT: The Digital Frontier

Key Stocks: MTN Nigeria (MTNN), Airtel Africa (AIRTELAFRI), and Chams Plc.

The ICT sector is expected to remain the fastest-growing component of the services sector, benefiting from:

• Infrastructure Expansion: Accelerated investments in 5G coverage and fiber-optic subsea cables are projected to lower data costs and improve connectivity.

• AI Adoption: A surge in the adoption of Artificial Intelligence across corporate Nigeria is expected to drive operational efficiency and create a new sub-sector for tech startups.

• Digital Commerce: With the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) pushing for a digital tax environment, the formalization of “social commerce” will drive massive volumes through digital payment gateways.

Agriculture: From Subsistence to Agro-Processing

Key Stocks: Presco Plc, Okomu Oil Palm, Ellah Lakes, and FTN Cocoa.

Agriculture is forecast to stabilize as the “inflation-breaker” of 2026:

• Security Gains: Improved surveillance around “food basket” regions is expected to boost output, with the CBN projecting headline inflation to moderate to 12.94% largely due to easing food prices.

• Special Agro-Industrial Processing Zones (SAPZ): These zones are expected to reach full operational capacity in 2026, attracting private investment into value-addition (processing) rather than just raw production.

• Input Subsidies: The 2026 fiscal plan includes targeted reliefs on fertilizers and solar-powered irrigation, de-risking the sector for smallholder farmers.

• BOA: The recapitalisation of the Bank of Agriculture(BOA) should increase credit availability for farmers in 2026.

Financial Services: Recapitalization Dividend to Boost NGX in 2026

Key Stocks: UBA, GTCO, Access Holdings, and First HoldCo (Members of the MoneyCentral “FANTASTIC FIVE” group).

The banking sector enters 2026 in its strongest capital position in a decade.

• Recapitalization Completion: By April 2026, the mandatory bank recapitalization exercise will be complete, leaving Nigeria with a tier of “mega-banks” capable of funding trillion-naira infrastructure projects.

• Lower Borrowing Costs: As inflation cools, the CBN is expected to begin a dovish pivot (lowering the MPR), which will stimulate credit demand for SMEs and households.

• FATF De-listing: Nigeria’s removal from the FATF “Grey List” in late 2025 has lowered the cost of correspondent banking, making international trade cheaper and faster for Nigerian banks.

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