Dangote Says Refinery’s EBITDA Tops $5.5 Billion, Signals Record Third Quarter

Aliko Dangote said his refinery has generated “a bit over $5.5 billion” in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) through the third quarter (Q3) of 2026.

He also said it will most likely beat a full-year 2026 EBITDA projection of about $7.2 billion. These are the first figures to emerge for the third quarter, which the company has not yet published.

“I think we have done very well and we will do even better on the fourth quarter results,” Dangote told investors on Monday at the final roadshow for the refinery’s initial public offering, held in Port Harcourt, monitored by MoneyCentral. He addressed the event virtually.

“The share price at N525 is an extremely good price.”

First-half EBITDA was $2.60 billion, according to the IPO Prospectus. That implies third-quarter EBITDA of about $2.9 billion, more than the entire first half, MoneyCentral calculations show.

Hitting $7.2 billion would require only about $1.7 billion in the fourth quarter.

The nine-month figure already matches analysts’ full-year forecasts. CardinalStone expects 2026 EBITDA of $5.6 billion, and Chapel Hill Denham expects $5.7 billion. MoneyCentral estimates nine-month net profit at about $4.1 billion, above CardinalStone’s $3.8 billion full-year profit forecast.

Record fuel margins support the numbers. Diesel and jet fuel crack spreads nearly tripled from a year earlier in the third quarter EIA data shows. The refinery ran a record 736,470 barrels a day in August.

At the offer price, Dangote’s $7.2 billion target values the refinery at about 6.8 times EBITDA, on MoneyCentral calculations, down from about 9.4 times on first-half numbers.

The offer has been extended to October 27, on the need to give prospective buyers across Africa more time to access the share sale, and Dangote said subscriptions were “more than three or four times” the amount sought.

The figures provided by Dangote are unaudited comments made while marketing the share sale.

The implied third-quarter margin of about $54 a barrel is well above the prospectus guidance of $24.20 for 2026. Margins could also narrow quickly if the Iran war and the disruption to Russian fuel supply ease.

Get More of our proprietary news and analysis as MoneyCentral is now on WhatsApp Channels  Follow the MoneyCentral Nigeria channel on WhatsApp: Click here!